|
|
#1
09-05-2007, 03:25 AM
|
|||
|
|||
AK UI Turn Peel
I'm not going to convert this because I have no idea which format to use for 2p2...
5/10 on AP Hero is CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Preflop: UTG folds, MP raises, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB caps, BB folds, MP calls, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>. Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($62.50, 3 players) SB bets, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero calls</font>. Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($72.50, 2 players) SB bets, Hero... Reads: SB is 38/14/0.76 after 472 hands. MP is 40/26/1.62 after 53 hands. Not too much info on MP, but he's not too relevant here. Not much info on SB aside from the PT stats either. He's definitely a fish, and is generally on the passive side. I don't recall seeing him get out of line preflop in terms of 3-betting or capping, but I'm not too sure how much I was paying attention, so I wouldn't put too much weight into that "read" ********** My thoughts: Preflop obv is standard, flop peel is good, I imagine, closing the action with two overs and the bdfd. Right? The turn is my biggest question. Here were my assumptions throughout the hand: SB's range is something like JJ-AA, AK. However, it's entirely possible it's as wide as 88+, AKo, AQs+. Vs the tighter range, we've got 23.485% equity. This is enough to peel the turn right? Since he's somewhat passive postflop, I also feel I can confidently fold if he bets the river and I blank. On straight pot odds, I'm getting 8-1, so I need about 6 outs on average. Basically the best case scenario for me is 6 outs, or splitting. Would the times that his range is wide enough to include 88,99, AQs etc, be enough to offset when I'm drawing to less than 6 outs? Ie, vs KK we've got 3 outs, and AA has us dead. I'm not very good at doing the combo analysis, so correct me if I'm wrong here, but let me try with the tight range. 6 combos of JJ, 6 combos of QQ, 3 combos of KK, 3 combos of AA, 9 combos of AK... Grrr... I don't know how to factor in avg outs when one hand is to a split, lol... So, uh, let's ignore AK for a minute... Actually, this will work, I think... we'll do avg outs when I'm behind, since I'm assuming he checks the river with AK, and I fold to any bet, UI. So, 18 combos beat us, 1/3 (6 outs) + 1/3 (6 outs) + 1/6 (3 outs) + 1/6 (0 outs) = 4.5 outs. So, based on that alone, we don't have odds to call... But, we've got to factor in AK... This is where my limited math skillz end... Who wants to finish this for me? Also, if you don't want to do math, tell me how you'd play this on instinct at the table. Thanks guys. - Zach 
|
|
#2
09-05-2007, 03:37 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AK UI Turn Peel
I think I'd fold this on the turn based on SB's post-flop aggro. Seems like you only have a few out which may not be good.
PFagg of 0.76 over a decent sample would make this an easy fold for me, especially since I believe his range to be a lot tighter than you've assumed.
|
|
#7
09-05-2007, 06:44 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AK UI Turn Peel
[ QUOTE ]
kimchi, what would you assume his range to be then? QQ+? KK+? [/ QUOTE ] I think his calling range with a 40VIP is quite broad from the SB, but I think he's capping a lot less. I'd put him on maybe QQ+, AKs. I think he's maybe only calling JJ, AQs and maybe even AKo from here, along with lesser holdings. It's his post-aggro that I think narrows his range the most as if he didn't have a big hand, I don't think we'd see a turn bet from him here. It's this which would mostly push me to fold the turn. He seems more like a candidate to value bet than someone to call down with UI AK.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
