Three handed, 18BB, 99 on the button

[mchllbrt]

Subject line says most of it really.

I'm looking for comments on both the preflop bet sizing, and postflop action. In general the tournament has been fairly passive, but the three of us left are, big surprise, the most aggressive of the original crew.

Would it make a difference if the SB's stack were larger (say the stack sizes of the SB and BB were exchanged)?

(By the way, with these stacks and action through to the decision point, ICM suggests I need to double up 2/3 of the time to make the call correct.)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t3600)
SB (t4853)
BB (t6547)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, SB calls t500, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t1400) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1600</font>, Hero ???

[ger664]

Normally i would raise of t500 Pre Flop, but in this case 99 is a monster Short handed. Raising to t600 is good especially as it will get loose calls given your read.

Flop I would check behind here and call all turn bets unless another overcard club comes.

As played you need to make a push/fold descision based on whether you think villian is semi-bluffing here with a draw or value betting.

[icemanjmw]

I fold, still have 2200 left with 100/200 blinds, I may be a nit though. The only way I'm calling this if I have a read, or if blinds are about to go up to 200/400 very soon.

[PokahPokah]

what buy in is it?

[ymu]

Preflop, fine - I'd make it 500 but no problem with more if they're aggressive. c-bet fine, looks good. There are ~30 cards that scare us on the turn, so no harm in trying to take this pot down now.

The rest is a bit read dependent. If you think he can do this with less than a K often enough, then push.

You have to risk your remaining 2200 to win 5000, getting &gt;2:1, so you need to win ~31% for $ breakeven (at a guess). You might have some FE against an aggressive minraiser but it's unlikely, and you're ahead of some hands he has to call with.

He could be drawing with as many as 15 outs so you have maybe 60%+ average equity when you're ahead, depending on how often he has a lower pair and 5 outs. You have 2 outs plus runner runner straight if you're behind.

It depends a lot on how often you're ahead compared to behind. Preflop calling range and postflop mincheckraise range will matter a lot.

[mchllbrt]

Oops, please ignore my silly ICM comment. I assumed that I had $0 equity if I folded and lost, whereas of course it's 20%.

If I have it right now (and no promises), I need to win the hand about 35% of the time for pushing to be correct (assuming that I have no fold equity).

[ymu]

Sounds more plausible. I err on the side of aggression once ITM, especially if my opponent is aggressive and may think he can push me around with a deeper stack, so I'd pretty much always c-bet and push here.

You'd have a spot more FE for a turn 3-bet push if you'd raised a bit less preflop, saving a little on the c-bet and leaving him more behind after a minraise. But you probably don't want FE here, you're a long way ahead of the hands he has to call here but could fold if he wasn't pot committed.

[alex-star]

pre-flop is good. on the flop I might check behind. as played, I fold.

[icemanjmw]

Ignore my first response, I misread the title to be "on the bubble not on the button.

If we're already ITM then I think I'm getting it all-in here.