do you put your remaining chips in here?

[hamnegger]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com


7 players remain at final tbl
Hero (t6713)
BB (t41450)
UTG (t27322)
MP1 (t119085)
MP2 (t15802)
CO (t31440)
Button (t28188)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t3200</font>, CO calls t3200, hero?

[Feike]

With no reads? I wouldn't.

Leaving BB out of the equation (not desperate), I started doing some calculations (not very accurate, a lot of assumptions):


The first player might have been stealing, but he may also have a good hand. Say he will call/push with his top 5%, because he raised preflop the likelihood of him having one of these hands is higher, but not that much, because of the stealing opportunity.
If MP2 calls/pushes, CO will only call with AA and KK, perhaps AKs.
If all this happens, which propably will only happen 10% * 2 % of the time, you're EV is 17%.

So .2% of the time your EV = 17% * (6713 * 3) + 1600 = ~t3700


If CO gets away from his hand our EV against MP2 is 24.5% * (6713 * 2) + 1600 + 3200 = t4465
This happens 9.8% of the time.


If MP2 folds, CO will probably call (He needs to call t3513, and the pot is already 14713, approx 4.2 : 1).

Say he made this play with the top 40% of his hands, you'd have an EV of 35% * (14713+3513) = t6379



Folding would give you t5913

All in would give you:

.9 * t6379 = t5741
.002 * t3700 = t 7
.098 * t4465 = t 438
--------------------
t6186


I must say I'm surprised it's +cEV here, but I still think it's a clear fold. You'll probably be out &gt;60% of the time here, while if you fold you can open push the next orbit with a reasonable hand.

If you would include the BB, who would only call with AA, KK, it may even become -cEV.

[usha]

you have ~5900 after posting, and 0 FE if you shove here.
I would wait to openshove before the big hits me.

[el_dusto]

[ QUOTE ]
you have ... 0 FE if you shove here.
I would wait to open shove

[/ QUOTE ]

[Dave D]

Pot odds look awesome here. Everyone's obviously calling you, including BB.

Paging stumpy, I'm really interested to see what we're looking at here.

[levAA]

this is slightly +EV if both call you, or solid +EV if villain 1 pushes and the second folds after your shove.

if villain 1 opens with top 25% and villain 2 calls with top 20% your equity is 23% = 1:3,35

as you are the small blind you get pot odds of about 1:3,4 if both call - so this is enough.

if it is +$EV i also need stumpy for the ICM-calculations.

[Dave D]

Hand 0: 11.019% 10.59% 00.43% 61376819930 2468941120.08 { 97o }
Hand 1: 50.029% 49.79% 00.24% 288467998264 1400023390.08 { TT+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 18.691% 18.11% 00.58% 104945452046 3352773427.92 { random }
Hand 3: 20.261% 19.63% 00.63% 113754103981 3637617976.92 { random }

I think this is a fold unless we think it's gonna be heads up.

[levAA]

don't understand your poker-stove calculation here

why have you calculated 4 hands?

why 2 random hands?

[hamnegger]

yeah the bb should be random the flat callers range is tough. i thought i should shove but i folded bc my son was interrupting me. i would have deadmoney if the guy reraises and a bigger pot if not. my cards are prob live although weak. when short ill take a shot w connectors if price is right. i would have won too wound up finishing 7th

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
don't understand your poker-stove calculation here

why have you calculated 4 hands?

why 2 random hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I assumed the BB is calling with any two (as he pretty much should) and same with the first caller. That's being generous, and it still looks bad for hero.