300NL: AQ hits TPTK in 3bet pot

[bariban]

Villain is 21/17/3.2 -> 200 hands , seems like a standard tag, no real history.
I know my 3bet was way too small.


Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($439.21)</font>
SB ($314.63)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($304.58)</font>
UTG ($27.10)
MP ($293.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $12</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $37.5</font>, UTG folds, Button calls $25.50.

Flop: ($79.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, Button calls $60.

Turn: ($199.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?

[jfish]

bet/call

[slickss]

Bet, but I don't call if he re-raises. I think you'll see AQ/KQ/99 here a lot.

[CybrPunk]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, but I don't call if he re-raises. I think you'll see AQ/KQ/99 here a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't bet here and then fold. If you bet like $140 you'd be getting something sick like 7:1 on your call if raised so you'd have to be almost 100% certain that villain can't make that raise with something like KQ. If you aren't intending to call a shove you definitely should not bet.

Board: Qh 9c 2s Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.269% 38.89% 17.38% 2618 1170.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 43.731% 26.35% 17.38% 1774 1170.00 { 99, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }


If that's the range you assign, how can you possibly advocate bet/folding here?

[slickss]

[ QUOTE ]
If that's the range you assign, how can you possibly advocate bet/folding here?

[/ QUOTE ]
If he raises on the turn, I immediately put him on 99 or better. Do you really see him doing that with AQ/KQ/worse? Hero is taking a very straightforward value-betting line here.

[bariban]

I also think TT+ is in his range

[Bulletproof Monk]

because only 99 raises ldo

[minSim]

He never has JJ, QQ, KK, AA, QJs?

[CybrPunk]

With exactly a pot-sized bet left I like either shoving or betting $140 intending to call a shove. With as big as you built this pot between preflop and on the flop, you really shouldn't look to give it up at this point unless you have some ridiculously sick read that villain absolutely hit one of his 2 outs vs you to spike a set or something similar. The board isn't scary at all so you should probably be looking to get the money in.