Stox's example

[jt1]

Hand One in the examples section of Winning Tough Hold 'em Games.

Hero open raises with button 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB 3bets, bb folds, Hero calls.

7 sb: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero calls

4.5 bb: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero raises for free SD planning on folding to any aggression, SB folds

Stox's explanation: Raising is better than calling down because the pot is worth protecting. Getting 6 out draws to fold combined with the possibility of folding the best hand is worth risking getting bluffed and forgoing the chance to induce a bluff or catch a trey.

I don't understand. I think the pot is small enough that inducing a bluff is more important than folding overcards, especially since it seems very unlikely to me that villain will fold a better hand and it's very likely that villain will either bet the river or call a river bet.

[sharpie]

If villain won't 3 bet a worse hand much this is fine. If he's unknown, then it becomes risky. It's tough to say since unknowns at sites/limits are gonna play differently on a whole, but I'd say your average unknown is gonna 3 barrel something like QJ, put a bet in on the river with A hi, and rarely fold a better hand on the turn. K high it's hard to predict what they'll do, but I'm guessing we'd want to raise the turn if we knew they had K high, since he'll more likely check/fold with a hand like this.

With these parameters, villain is often gonna be putting a bet in on the river when we're ahead, so we don't need to worry too much about folding 6 outs in a pot of this size. I'm thinking unless the chance of folding a better hand is decent, it might not be worth it.

[stoxtrader]

The factors that go into exactly this type of decision on the turn are:

1) how often villain bets/bluffs unimmproved overs on the river

2) how often villain will fold better hands (55-77, 99, 8x,4x) to a turn raise

3) how often villain will 3 bet with a worse hand (OESD, flush draws maybe)

On your action on the turn, there is 5.5BB in the pot, so 6 outs is worth roughly .715BB. If you know villain won't 3bet the turn with overs and is unlikely to bluff them on the river, then raising is clearly correct and checking behind the river if called, folding to a turn 3 bet.

If villain is somewhat likely to both bluff rivers and sometimes 3 bet bluff/semibluff turns, then calling down is best. The exact math gets too complicated for me because of the multiple scenarios, but there is certainly an inflection point between the two.

[Heisenb3rg]

Also how well he plays the river is important.

If he check/calls A hi, check/raises a few bluffs and check/raises many pairs T+ you are put in a tough spot.

If he bluffs and value bets a K/Q/A river with a lot of his range etc.. He puts you in a tough spot.

Basically forcing you to make mistakes on the river.. So while you are "inducing bluffs or calldowns" when they miss; YOU are also making mistakes when they hit or a scarecard comes up, which offsets this.

Thus the 0.85BB value in getting him to fold is often greater than the amount earned if you always get one bet out of his overcards on the river. (since you are paying him off or folding the best hand too)

If you fold out his overcards (or overpresent your hand) you put yourself in a situation that avoids complicated river decisions against most opponents.

When you get 3-bet on the turn, there are very few strong draws on his range, so the amount of mistakes you make by folding to a turn 3-bet, is less than the mistakes youll make by allowing him to see a river. (assuming a solid opponent)

Stox's example is a great example because it explains how free showdown raising this turn with a low pair has a lot of value because of the decisions you put him to with his overcards.
It also explains how it is strongly dependent on your opponents tendencies.. You must weigh these tendencies to decide what is the best course of action.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
On your action on the turn, there is 5.5BB in the pot, so 6 outs is worth roughly .715BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually there will be 6.5 BB in the pot after you call the turn and his six outs are worth about 0.85 BB. Whenever folding isn't an option you should mentally put the call money in the pot and then start thinking about whether you want to raise.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Also how well he plays the river is important.

If he check/calls A hi, check/raises a few bluffs and check/raises many pairs T+ you are put in a tough spot.

If he bluffs and value bets a K/Q/A river with a lot of his range etc.. He puts you in a tough spot.


[/ QUOTE ]


Those are excellent points but in my 5/10 FTP game there is only one scenario when a non-maniac check/raises the river after having led the turn: That is when an ace spikes and they have a monster. So after calling the turn, I can only imagine ever folding a winner if an ace spiked and villain had a King high hand and he 3barrels. Putting the percentage that villain has king high at 10% and assuming villain always would bet it when that ace spikes, by not raising the turn I am loosing .0625 bb. ((1/12)*.1)*7.5) And that sum plus the .85 bb those six outs are worth only equals .9 bb. So by inducing a river bluff, I am earning .1 bb/hand, higher if villain would ever 3bet bluff and lower if King high hands sometimes check/fold the river.

Stox plays at a different level obviously, but in my game where you don't have to worry about expert river play and most players are SD bound, it seems that inducing when the pot is that small is better than going for the free SD. The only exception I can think of is when villain is weak/tight: Against such a player, you may be able to fold a better hand and you can't be certain that he'll call with ace high after checking the river.

[sweetjazz]

I think villain is (and should be) calling the turn with all A highs here given the drawy nature of the flop. So if you're raising 33 on the turn here, I think you should be valuebetting blanky rivers. Obviously, you don't value bet the 9h, but you would valuebet a 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, T and probably a 6 or 7. The number of combos of AK/AQ/AJ/A9 and maybe even some K highs that will call you down is greater than the number of combos of hands that beat you but just calldown your turn raise A8/K8s/99/77/66/55 (may have to had the weaker Tx hands like T9 and Jt to this list). Plus you get more value out of your later turn raises with stronger hands when you push 33 this hard.

I think raising the turn with the intention of checking behind any non-3 river in this hand is not the best play. If the board were:

(Flop: Qh 8s 4h) (Turn: 8c), then you could make a much stronger case for raising the turn with 33 and then checking behind a non-3 river. Now any fold you get is really good for you, even Ks 2s folding is a theoretical mistake. There's less reason to bet a blank river as there is a wider range of hands that just call your raise even though they beat you.

[beanwater]

On your action on the turn, there is 5.5BB in the pot, so 6 outs is worth roughly .715BB.

im a noob and i dont understand this, can someone please explain how to figure that.

[efficacy]

[ QUOTE ]


On your action on the turn, there is 5.5BB in the pot, so 6 outs is worth roughly .715BB.

im a noob and i dont understand this, can someone please explain how to figure that.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain has six outs, he will improve to the best hand 6 / 46 (46 is the number of unseen cards left in the deck) = 13% of the time, thus he has 13% pot equity.

0.13 * 5.5BB = 0.715BB