What percentage of bad plays would I need?

[sean457j]

I played this hand recently at a low level SNG.

Seat 1 - Button ($1490 in chips)
Seat 2 - SB ($1480 in chips)
Seat 3 - BB ($1500 in chips)
Seat 4 - Hero ($1480 in chips)
Seat 5 - UTG+1 ($1480 in chips)
Seat 6 - MP 1 ($1500 in chips)
Seat 7 - MP 2 ($1500 in chips)
Seat 8 - MP 3 ($1500 in chips)
Seat 9 - CO ($1570 in chips)
SB - Posts small blind $10
BB - Posts big blind $20
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Hero - Raises $80 to $80
UTG+1 - Folds
MP 1 - Folds
MP 2 - Folds
MP 3 - Folds
CO - Calls $80
Button - Folds
SB - Folds
BB - Calls $60
*** FLOP *** [6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
BB - Bets $20
Hero - Raises $80 to $80
CO - Folds
BB - Raises $560 to $580
Hero - All-In(Raise) $1320 to $1400
BB - Calls $820

It was only the second hand and so I had no idea what the BB was likely to hold. I have seen many big raises with poor hands in the early rounds of the low level SNGs.

My question is: approximately what percentage of times would I be ahead on this hand? I think personally that to make this allin move worthwhile I should only be doing it if I expect to win around 70% of the time. Thinking back over this hand I reckon I am only ahead around 30% (He decides to reraise with AQ, AJ, AT), does anyone have any other estimates or statistics about early allin play?

[K䲰䮥n]

I'm a bit rutsy on STTs but...

Your flop raise is too small. Make it pot size. The rest is standard. Worse As is a HUGE amount of his range.

[sean457j]

The bet on the flop was sized because there was little in terms of draws on the board (no flush, at best an inside straight) and I wanted to get the most value out of people who might hold weaker aces and middle pairs.

[ger664]

If this is a low buyin they will call a bigger bet on this flop with their middle pair and weaker Ace.
Normally they will call all the way. Bigger bet on the flop will allow you to get the most EV from your hand by been able to make a bigger bet on the turn.

[sean457j]

Yeah I've worked through it with a few estimated EV calculations, and I agree that a bigger bet is probably better (around 2/3 of the pot). Although I have to say that sometimes if you feign weakness on the flop then put in a big bet/raise/check raise on the turn or river then allot of low level SNG players like to go with there first assumption: that you are weak, and are now trying to buy pot.

[Insty]

You are overthinking things.
Quit your FPS and play ABC.