Overpair on dry enough board facing a c/r

[cooker3]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $104.35
hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $28.00
CO: $154.50
BTN: $51.75

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain here is SB who is a big nit. It's qwertman1 for anyone who plays these games regurally. He is on a lot when I play
He is 15/12/10 over 700 hands</font>

Preflop: hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $2.50</font>, <font color="red">hero raises to $7.50</font>, UTG folds, SB calls $5.00

Flop: ($15.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">hero bets $9.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $96.85</font>

Ugh, I really hated that c/r. He clearly has queens here a fair amount, there is no doubting that but can he have other hands enough, those hands been kings and AK of hearts enough to justify a call. I can't really see another hand here he has but maybe someone who has played with him lost can tell me differantly.

[Spurious]

I havent played with him but he is uber-aggressive, i'd call here. He can have AQ here.

[cooker3]

[ QUOTE ]
I havent played with him but he is uber-aggressive, i'd call here. He can have AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his AF is a bit deceptive here, I think it's so high because when he gets involved he usually has a hand so will naturally be aggressive with it.
I doubt he calls a 3 bet oop with AQ although something I should have added in op I am aggressive against him and continually steal against the guy and I know he has noticed

[Berky]

call

[maciczka]

call

[sharky01]

I think you have to call but at the same time just accept the fact that you are pretty much 50/50 vs his range. Pretty much depends if you are risk loving or are risk averse. I couldn't find a fold in this spot. There's a lot of combo draws he could have. More a question for poker stove.

[scallop]

I think this is a fold. You've descirbed him as a nit, and his stats suggest this. Is he going to call a 3-bet oop with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ? I dont think so, and he cant have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], so I dont think he has a flush draw here.

His range is pretty narrow? AQ, Sets, KK? I would lean towards folding.

[Spurious]

[ QUOTE ]
Is he going to call a 3-bet oop with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Me neither, or he cheats. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board.


He can have KK as well and was trying to trap you. And AQs is in his range, maybe even AQo. CALL

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is he going to call a 3-bet oop with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Me neither, or he cheats. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the board.


He can have KK as well and was trying to trap you. And AQs is in his range, maybe even AQo. CALL

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, didnt spot that.

This makes his range even more narrow - he doesnt have a draw. He has AQ, KK or a set, and this looks a set.

This guy prolly doesnt call w pre, and prolly 4-bets KK.

[Lego05]

Call.



Just about worst case scenario IMO (maybe take out a couple KK combos for the real worst case scenario):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,900 games 0.005 secs 1,980,000 games/sec

Board: Qh 2h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.106% 59.33% 04.77% 5874 472.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 35.894% 31.12% 04.77% 3081 472.50 { AcAd, KK, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs }



Half the KK combos:

Board: Qh 2h 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.085% 45.27% 06.82% 3137 472.50 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.915% 41.10% 06.82% 2848 472.50 { AcAd, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs }


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4,950 games 0.005 secs 990,000 games/sec