Hard board againts calling station - 1/2 NL Holdem

[VitoT]

villian is super-duper calling station,especially pre-flop. his range is very wide, saw him calling pre-flop raises with 72o and hands like that, but as the hand proccesing, he is tighten up, but still, he may call the first street very light, with a gutshot or a 2-3 pair with mini kicker.

1/2 NL, 6 handed :

UTG ($202.75)
Hero (MP) ($211.25)
CO ($198.50)
Button ($354.05)
SB ($126.10)
BB ($89.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG + 1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
1 fold, hero raises to 8$, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop (pot 18$, 2 playes) : J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets 16$, CO calls

Turn (47$): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets 44$, CO is all-in, Hero ?

[Minotaoro]

You are getting about 2 to 1 and need to win 33% of the times here. I think that all the possible combinations with an eight does hurt your equity here but I think it can be close depending on his aggression. Have you seen him push draws hard before? Typical for a callingstation is to call, not raise.

I did try to put a range on him in pokerstove. I have one combination of kings and aces because I think he could have it here some times. I didn't include any full house but maybe I should? I did include KJ and some strong draws and a weaker flushdraw. And I did include eight different hands with an eight in it.

I am not sure about this range and maybe I have forgotten about some hands but the equity I get with this range is:

1,848 games 0.005 secs 369,600 games/sec

Board: Jc 7h 8c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.682% 22.89% 07.79% 423 144.00 { AhJd }
Hand 1: 69.318% 61.53% 07.79% 1137 144.00 { AdAh, KhKs, AJs, A8s, Ac7c, KJs, QcTc, Tc9c, T8s, 98s, 86s+, AJo, A8o, KJo, 98o, 87o

So my bottomline is that the fact that he is a callingstation (usually not that aggressive) and all the possible combinations of eights in his hand due to his loose preflopcalls really hurt your equity here but I think it is close. I would love to here other opinions about this one.

(had to edit, I completly missed the rest of the combinations with T9 that makes a straight so with that in mind I think this is a more clear fold. The equity with those combinations included is now only 25%)

[Upright Citizen]

I think this is a muck.

You're wise to pay attention when calling stations wake up. I don't see someone so passive pushing KJ on such a dangerous board, and I have no idea what else you'd be beating.

[VitoT]

i meant he can call with buttom-middle pair with mini-kicker.
later on the session i raised pre-flop with KK, flop was :
J 10 7, he called my post flop bet of 85% of the pot, turn was an A, i check he bet half the pot, river is J, we both checked and he showed 10 5 off suit.