Iowa v. NIU (9/1/07)

[droopy0021]

YTD 1-0 (+1 unit, Tulsa -3 over La Monroe)
Liked Tulsa despite new OL. Experience at QB P Smith for Tulsa would help adjust to new offensive attack. I was also surprised at how well their D ranked last year (I did fade 1 or 2 times when they played big, physical running teams). Figured they would hold down SunBelt (bad conference) opponent. I watched 4-5 Tulsa games last year and followed Conf USA & MAC closely(my big bet of year was So Miss over Ohio in bowl game). Didn't get to watch game last night (TIVOd it)--was at Brewer-Cub game (disappointed).

Iowa (-12) over NIU 3 units

I like Iowa to win handily over NIU for following reasons:

1. Iowa's front 7 on D should dominate. Iowa's DE Iwebema missed a good part of last year and is back. NIU has only 1 senior out of 15 OL and line continuity is critical. Not fun in week 1 v. easily best defensive front they'll see all year. Early reports from spring showed some troubles with NIU OL coming together.
2. NIU studs gone: Garrett Wolf (1800 yards) and Doug Free (NFL OT). They're left with 2-3 guys that HC Joe Novak says will share carries until they figure out who the guy is (or maybe will go with committee). I saw a few NIU games last year and QB D Nicholson wasn't terribly impressive. He may have improved and his WRs are decent but don't think he'll have much time v. Iowa front.
3. Chicago area Hawkeye alums will fill a majority of sold-out Soldier Field. Technically an NIU home game but crowd should be fired up for opener. I think 24-14 narrow Iowa win v. NIU last year is lingering and keeping line down.

I'm banking on NIU really struggling to score. I know Iowa is starting a relatively unproven QB in Christensen and has suspended 2 WRs but think running game of Young should put enough points on the board. I'm hoping for NIU to put up < 14 total points for me to feel somewhat comfortable. With Iowa's passing game down a couple key players I would guess they're going to be somewhat conservative with new QB in their attack. I won't be happy if they need to score 42+ to cover.

With my cable arsenal of CSTV, FoxSports family, ESPN I hope to keep a close eye on Conf USA, MAC and some other small conferences as the year progresses. It worked last year.

[New001]

I'm on this at -11 from a week or two ago. Good luck.

[BetOnG4Real]

Biased on this one, huge Hawkeye fan. I'm not so worried about the loss of the Hawks two WR's as I am about their offensive line coming together. They've got some guys banged up, might take them a few games to come together. I think the Hawks might be underrated, especially on offense. But, like I said their the key is their offensive line. Defense has a chance to be nasty, especially DLine and LB's are solid. CB's should be better with both returning, safety's are a definite question mark with losses at FS and SS. I think Christensen is going to be one hell of a QB when he leaves Iowa. The question is, is he ready tomorrow? I have heard he prepares and studies as good as anyone and has been waiting for this for awhile. He came out of the Chicagoland area highly touted, All-American. I am staying away from my heart, but like the Hawks to win by a couple of TD's.