NL50: AA easy fold here?

[billxo1b]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $23.50
BB: $32.50
UTG: $44.05
UTG+1: $49.35
MP1: $53.95
MP2: $54.30
Hero (MP3): $35.15
CO: $82.65
BTN: $76.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2.00

Flop: ($8.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $74.15</font>, MP1 calls all-in for $48.45, Hero ??

[Mike Kelley]

Yeah, Fold'em if you can find the button.

[CazicT]

Hero is getting 4.5:1 on a call here (notice Hero wasn't at full buy-in). Is my math right?

If we knew the players it would make it easier, but is it so far fetched that one is drawing and the other has an overpair worse than ours? Toughie, but I might venture a call here, but i'm not saying i'm definetly correct...

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is getting 4.5:1 on a call here (notice Hero wasn't at full buy-in). Is my math right?

If we knew the players it would make it easier, but is it so far fetched that one is drawing and the other has an overpair worse than ours? Toughie, but I might venture a call here, but i'm not saying i'm definetly correct...

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice catch. Full stacks fold. put in half our stack and then fold probably not such a great play. I'd call getting those odds I guess. we have the gutshot which might be a discounted out.

Do you think RR to $9 would get you the same information?

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is getting 4.5:1 on a call here (notice Hero wasn't at full buy-in). Is my math right?

[/ QUOTE ]He's calling $18.65 to win $87.55 which is 4.69:1 so he only needs 17.6% equity to call. I've been playing around for a while w/poker stove for this hand and OP can't call this profitably unless he thinks that the button is pushing at least 2 overpairs or MP is a retard. This hand really comes down to how tight these players are and any read you have on them.

855,141 games 0.015 secs 57,009,400 games/sec

Board: 3d 4s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.265% 12.86% 01.41% 109941 12045.83 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 43.646% 41.11% 02.54% 351527 21708.33 { 66-33, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, A2s, 76s, 65s, 54s }
Hand 2: 42.089% 39.51% 02.58% 337838 22080.83 { 66-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, A2s, KdQd, 76s, 65s, 54s }

Hand 1 is MP and I didn't give him AKs/AQs because these are likely to be raised.

[Mike Kelley]

You didn't give either villain QQ-77? Seems plausible to me, I've also seen donks stack off with TPTK on these boards.

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't give either villain QQ-77? Seems plausible to me, I've also seen donks stack off with TPTK on these boards.

[/ QUOTE ]I didn't give it to MP because it's unlikely he stacks off with those, maybe 77 with the gutshot but still pretty doubtful and TT-QQ probably raise preflop. As I said if you add in 2 overpairs for the button then it becomes a +ev call but that's up to OPs read which is why I didn't include them in the stoving.

[Mike Kelley]

Maybe not a large percentage of the time but I think often enough to warrant a call with a short stack both of these players have over pairs to the board.