analysis question, HU hand.

[nycplayer]

I posted this hand in the HU forum, but thought I might get a better idea about my analysis here.

nl100 on stars hero w/ $120 vs. Villain w/ $80
hero has TT
villain raises to 3
hero makes it 15 to go
villain calls
flop is 5 7 8 rainbow
(pot is $30, effective stacks are $65)
hero?

Can anyone tell me if this analysis is correct?

It seems counter intuitive that my EV is higher against the range where I'm a bigger dog. Also it seems strange that even if I'm only getting called when I'm very likely to be behind (only beating A8, 99 and 89) that I have such a positive EV.

Case 1: I push, and villain will call with:
(TPTK or better, and TP with gutshot)
77+,55,
A8s,98s,96s,87s,85s,75s,64s,
A8o,98o,96o,87o,85o,75o,64o

87.5% of the time villain folds, and I win $30.
12.5% of the time villain calls, and I am a 7:3 underdog to that range.
My EV when he calls is $4:
30% I win $30 pot + 65 call = 49.5
70% I lose my $65 bet = -45.5

so EV for pushing = ($30 * .875) + ($4 * .125) = $26.75


Case 2: I bet $20 and call a push, and villain pushes TPTK plus a couple of semi-bluffs (66 + T9):
55+,
A8s,T9s,98s,96s,87s,85s,75s,64s,
A8o,T9o,98o,96o,87o,85o,75o,64o

85.8% of the time villain folds, and I win $30 (25.74)
14.2% of the time villain pushes,and I am a 2:1 underdog to that range.
My EV when he pushes and I call is $1.65:
33% I win $50 pot + 45 call = 31.65
66% I lose my $45 call = -30.00

so EV for bet/call = ($30 * .858) + ($1.65 * .142) = $25.97

Did I do this right?

[jay_shark]

Assuming all your numbers are correct and that he will fold 87.5% of the time and when he calls he'll win 7/10 .

Fold equity : 30*0.875
Ev : 30*0.875 + .125[*110*3/10 - 50*7/10] = 26

Or , Ev: 30*.875 + .125*[160*3/10 - 50]=26

2)Since you will call his push no matter what , the calculations are done the exact same way .

30*.858 + .142*[110*1/3 - 50*2/3] =26.213333

[Pokerfarian]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems counter intuitive that my EV is higher against the range where I'm a bigger dog. Also it seems strange that even if I'm only getting called when I'm very likely to be behind (only beating A8, 99 and 89) that I have such a positive EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Basically you show a bigger profit when he folds semibluffing hands like 66 & T9 since you'd rather pick up the pot now than get the chips in with a small, <60% edge. You have such a positive EV because overpairs are the nuts HU :-)

[nycplayer]

well, I don't know how good my numbers are.
I put him on a random hand, since there's no read, and he'd have to be playing a lot of small cards to catch that flop.
I think assuming a random hand is better in this case than assuming he's holding a top 25% hand, in which case I'm 53:47 favorite against hands he might call with.

That math would look like this, I think:
he's playing top 25% of hands, and calling a push with the 9% that hit that flop well. (36% of the 25%)
so:
fold equity (30 * 0.64) = 19.2
ev (30 * 0.64) + 0.36[(160 * 0.53) - 65] = 26.33

Which is pretty close, anyway. All in all I think I was in a good spot, and didn't make a huge error - just got a horribly unlucky flop after he called my reraise with 46o.