variance

[PokerBob]

i constantly hear how the variance of NL is nothing compared to limit. ive been a limit pro for years and have seen 650bb drops and lived to tell about it.

i have been dabbling in NL of late, and dumped 7 buy-ins this morning. granted, i may suck, but most of it (i think) was running bad (AA vs. AK all-in and lose and other idiocy).

thing is, i'm not sure. in limit, i know when i'm getting fagged over and over, and that 300bb drops are not uncommon at all. in nl, i have no frame of reference, especially since i am new to it.

i want conversion chart that tells me 100bb drop in limit = 5 buyins in NL or whatever. anyone have any way to relate the two?

[mittman84]

[ QUOTE ]
i constantly hear how the variance of NL is nothing compared to limit. ive been a limit pro for years and have seen 650bb drops and lived to tell about it.

i have been dabbling in NL of late, and dumped 7 buy-ins this morning. granted, i may suck, but most of it (i think) was running bad (AA vs. AK all-in and lose and other idiocy).

thing is, i'm not sure. in limit, i know when i'm getting fagged over and over, and that 300bb drops are not uncommon at all. in nl, i have no frame of reference, especially since i am new to it.

i want conversion chart that tells me 100bb drop in limit = 5 buyins in NL or whatever. anyone have any way to relate the two?

[/ QUOTE ]I was a long time limit player at 3/6 6 max. I was a 1.5BB/100 winner over ~200k hands, and had several 200/300/400 BB swings. I have switched over to NL twice now (lol). The first was back in the party days and I was just bad at it. I won 7 buy ins in my first session, but proceded to lose them all back plus about 10, with lots of swings between. At the time I thought I was playing well and was just running terrible, but now I know I was playing pretty bad.

Since moving back to NL about 1.5 months ago, I have played over 40K hands at 6.5PTBB/100 and my biggest swing is -4 Buyins, and I know I am playing a ton better than my first attempt at NL. I know that 40k hands is almost nothing, but my graph looks like a pretty straight line at NL, while my limit graph would look like a seismic graph pointed slightly up. I have heard many good players say anytime they have lost more than 7-8 buy ins it was because they were not playing well.

It is very possible for a good limit player to be bad at NL when first moving over and not know it(I am not saying that is necessarily the case with you). The only way to find out is to post hands. Also read hands in the strat forums and see if you are agreing with what other are saying. If I had to put a number on the the variance I would say 5 buyins = ~200BB in limit.

[DeathDonkey]

Bob, it also depends on your style. What are your preflop stats for 6 max NL? For instance, I ran/run around 28/17 which is obviously way LAG and I had 5 buyin drops frequently, I also had +10 buyin days and a couple bigger than that and I don't log that many hands in a day. My experience tells me 100 bb limit drop = 10 buyin NL drop, but for a tight TAG playing NL 6 max I would expect that to be far less true.

-DeathDonkey

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Bob, it also depends on your style. What are your preflop stats for 6 max NL? For instance, I ran/run around 28/17 which is obviously way LAG and I had 5 buyin drops frequently, I also had +10 buyin days and a couple bigger than that and I don't log that many hands in a day. My experience tells me 100 bb limit drop = 10 buyin NL drop, but for a tight TAG playing NL 6 max I would expect that to be far less true.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty spot on, but pf numbers don't tell the whole story, how you play postflop and where you get your edge is going to make a difference. If you're a krantz-esque bluffmonkey[this is not an insult, this is the image he projects] who is 3betting BS all day and 4betting a wide range, one who gets opponents to overvalue marginal hands and thus has to get it in with alot of medium strength hands, +/- 10BIs is going to be routine.

For someone who plays nittier postflop, wins alot of small pots but picks up the occasional extra one here and there with a multi-street bluff, 3bets premiums and the occasional "mix-it-up" hand, exercises pot control with medium strength hands, and value-bets big hands and big draws hard your variance will be less severe, since when the pot gets large you almost always have very high equity.

For this type of player(which is how most learning NL should start) -7BIs should cause consternation, go over every big pot played, do equity calcs and see if you could win more / lose less / have noticed some key piece of info that you missed, etc.

gl bro.

Surf

[pzhon]

You shouldn't expect a fixed number. The analogue depends on your stats. Here are two methods for comparing swings in limit and NL.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] One way to compare amounts is to normalize by your standard deviation per 100 hands. For full ring limit this is typically 15 BB/100 +- 15%. Add only 10% for playing 6-max, despite what people say about 6-max having a lot more variance. So, 300 BB corresponds to about 20 times the typical swings in a 100 hand period for some full ring players.

Standard deviations in NL vary much more based on playing style and the game's aggression level and stack sizes. For full ring, 80 big blinds/100 may be typical in some games. I'm not sure how much it should increase in 6-max games. 20 times the typical swings in a 100 hand period might be 1600 big blinds = 16 buy-ins. 7 buy-ins might be like 130 BB in this sense.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] If you want to know how common it is for a winning player to experience a drop of 7 buy-ins, you get a different answer, one which depends on your win rate. A marginal winner sees many more large downswings than a solid winner.

comfort = bankroll * win rate / (standard deviation ^2).

bankroll = comfort * (standard deviation^2)/ win rate.

One meaning of this is that your risk of ruin if you stay at the same level is about e^(-2 * comfort). Most people are happy setting a minimum comfort level between 2 (aggressive) and 4 (quite conservative).

To determine what number of buy-ins corresponds to 300 BB, either for bankroll purposes or to measure the probability of a downswing, determine the amount that gives the same comfort level.

So, for example, if you win 2 BB/100 in limit with a standard deviation of 15 BB/100, 300 BB represents a comfort level of 300 * 2 / 15^2 = 2.67. If you win 16 big blinds/100 (a solid win rate for SSNL, though a bit anemic for NL $25 and below) with a standard deviation of 80 big blinds/100, then the amount corresponding to a comfort level of c is c * 80^2/16 big blinds = c * 400 big blinds = c * 4 buy-ins. c=2.67 -> 10.67 buy-ins. In this sense, dropping 7 buy-ins is about the same as dropping 200 BB.

[diebitter]

Surf's about spot on. Variance in NL is really related to your postflop play; if you're decent at reads + pot control + laying down TPGK and overcards when the tightie/LAP is potbuilding + valuebetting when ahead, your downswings are much less serious.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Variance in NL is really related to your postflop play; if you're decent at reads + pot control + laying down TPGK and overcards when the tightie/LAP is potbuilding + valuebetting when ahead, your downswings are much less serious.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would say that about win rate instead of variance.

If you are using a measure of variance which depends on your win rate (such as the frequency of downswings of a fixed size), then how you play in small and medium sized pots has a huge effect on variance. It's just easier to remember, and more fun to play the big pots.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance in NL is really related to your postflop play; if you're decent at reads + pot control + laying down TPGK and overcards when the tightie/LAP is potbuilding + valuebetting when ahead, your downswings are much less serious.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would say that about win rate instead of variance.

If you are using a measure of variance which depends on your win rate (such as the frequency of downswings of a fixed size), then how you play in small and medium sized pots has a huge effect on variance. It's just easier to remember, and more fun to play the big pots.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're saying the same thing. If one player attacks every pot he has a hope of winning HU or 3way and 2barrels and 3barrels alot, that player will have a very high variance compared to someone who pot-controls /bluff induces / gives up cbetting on unfavorable flops wrt opp's range, etc. In this sense the "small pot" variance will have a huge impact.

The gist of it is that postflop play will be a huge factor in how swingy your game is, whether it's high variance or low winrate.

Surf

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance in NL is really related to your postflop play; if you're decent at reads + pot control + laying down TPGK and overcards when the tightie/LAP is potbuilding + valuebetting when ahead, your downswings are much less serious.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would say that about win rate instead of variance.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're saying the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not disagreeing, I'm emphasizing that poor win rates are a major cause of downswings. People tend to point fingers at some risky-looking play that managed to get a large number of chips in while behind, but often the main cause of a large downswing or its severity is not playing the common small pots well. It may even mean not stealing the blinds enough, or not making enough good bluff raises, even though folding may seem to be a low variance play. When a play adds risk, but is safer than playing normal poker, it tends to decrease the size of your downswings.

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
i constantly hear how the variance of NL is nothing compared to limit. ive been a limit pro for years and have seen 650bb drops and lived to tell about it.

i have been dabbling in NL of late, and dumped 7 buy-ins this morning. granted, i may suck, but most of it (i think) was running bad (AA vs. AK all-in and lose and other idiocy).

thing is, i'm not sure. in limit, i know when i'm getting fagged over and over, and that 300bb drops are not uncommon at all. in nl, i have no frame of reference, especially since i am new to it.

i want conversion chart that tells me 100bb drop in limit = 5 buyins in NL or whatever. anyone have any way to relate the two?

[/ QUOTE ]


basically, the first sentence just isn't true anymore. 7 buyins really isn't that much. pretty similar to losing 100 bb