Combo draw played strong on the flop, faces raise by probable set

[Cadence Lauren]

Newbie taking a shot at NL$100; this is my first post after a brief stint in uNL.

This hand occurred during my first 30 hands at the table. Villain had limped in a few times, never raised pf, nothing to note postflop. I'd taken down a few small pots with uncontested c-bets and won one medium-sized pot when another villain called my large turn bet with a gutshot and whiffed on the river.

My thinking on the flop was to make a 2/3 pot bet b/c that had been the size of my flop bets on previous hands, possibly allowing me to disguise my hand as a steal attempt. I planned to estimate my fold equity on later streets if called and the turn missed me. With any luck, the button would fold, giving me position. Here's what happened instead:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($102.50)
UTG ($118.95)
<font color="#C00000">Heroine ($146.95)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Button ($105.05)</font>
SB ($100)

Preflop: Heroine is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3</font>, Heroine calls $3, Button calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($12.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Heroine bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $30</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, <font color="blue">Heroine?</font>

With about $50 in the pot and $72 behind, I think I'm best calling here and hoping for one of my 11 pretty good outs on the turn (thinking the 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is too dangerous to bet). Given the board texture and Villain's pf call, this smells a lot more like a set than anything else, and if it is, Villain is not folding to an all-in reraise. Opinions?

[holdem2000]

I'd just push it here, you'd be surprised how often the villain has an overpair (then even if they call you're a slight favorite), 67, even 57, or the occasional connected spade overcards. Even against a set you've still got about 32% equity, so I think you have to be pretty sure he has a set to just call here.

[sixhigh]

Callings sucks big because you have no position to extract if you hit and are most likely facing a nearly uncallable bet on the turn if you whiff (which you will do like &gt;75% of the time). Surely Sets are in buttons range, but so are at least some other hands to give you enough FE and/or equity if called if you push now. This hand really needs to played on the flop and not on later streets where you will either lose equity or costumers.

[cfb1739]

I shove here, but I always over-estimate the amount of fold equity I have when semi-bluffing. I also suck at drawing out.

[13_Xerxes]

I push, IP I'll call.