NL 100 AA gets raised on the flop. Is the always a fold?

[flytrap]

Opponent is 12/1, but with an AF of 6. I hate folding in spots where it would be correct to raise me with any two cards. But since my opponent probably doesn't know this, he must have the goods here most of the time right? The raise is big enough that I decide now if my hand is good. I raised out of the blind, villain has to expect that I have a big hand, and that I won't lay it down. Therefore, must I fold?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $172.80
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $97.35
UTG+1: $100.00
MP1: $106.45
MP2: $21.40
MP3: $12.20
CO: $97.10
BTN: $39.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1.00, 3 folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $6.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $38.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero ?

[Small Fry]

With those stats it looks like a set to me.

[chopchoi]

I'd be highly surprised if this were a set. He almost never raises pf, and rarely even sees the flop. Because of his low PFR, you can't rule out big pairs because he didn't 3-bet. Furthermore, I don't think 22 and 44 are in his calling range. Could be 99, but TT-KK are way more likely. I call, c/c the turn and shove the river if he checks behind.

[jimmytrick]

How extensive is your data base on him? Raising so seldom he might be flat calling with a big pair and think it is good. How have you been playing? How wide is your opening range?

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
With those stats it looks like a set to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

AF of 6 means he has any two cards IMO. Sets are still a possiblity but I don't think he needs one to do this.

[flytrap]

[ QUOTE ]
How extensive is your data base on him? Raising so seldom he might be flat calling with a big pair and think it is good. How have you been playing? How wide is your opening range?

[/ QUOTE ]

He likely is treating this hand like it's in a vacuum. I don't have too many hands on him, and haven't played NL 100 in like 4 months. I haven't done anything crazy.

[FireStorm]

Get it in, either by shoving now or calling and getting it in on the turn. He may have big diamonds here, or a marginal overpair TT/JJ. Kind of tough to get a better board for your hand than this that doesn't consist of you flopping top set.

[Mystic013]

As someone said in another thread.

Please get your circular betting units in the middle.

People that run with stats like 12/1 etc. are the type who would coldcall raises with QQ,KK,AA and then felt it against any type of aggression postflop no matter what the flop is.

[mce86]

What types of hands has he raised before? It looks like he could have an overpair here, and you would have him killed.
A call here is good, and he may make the turn cheap for you where you can decide if you want to play back at him.

[SABR42]

I would go all-in because you have ace-ace.