1/3 NL Live

[kayaker]

Was playing live this weekend in Tunica and had a hand I think I could have lost an opportunity with. Let me know what you think. (Results are from memory, so the details could be a touch off.)

Background:
I'd been playing pretty tight and a little on the passive side - not quite rock territory, but close. Villain was two seats to my left and was obviously a regular somewhere. (He had said he was from Phoenix, so I figure he plays fairly regularly in Vegas and/or reservation casinos.) Villain had been playing on the TAG side.

One round earlier, I got AA from UTG and raised to $12. He made it $50 and then called my push for his remaining $100. I stacked his QQ on that hand. He rebought and his play seemed to stay about the same.

For the hand in question, I got A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and again made it $12 to go from UTG. This time Villain called and four of us saw the flop. (I have Villain covered about $400 - $250.)

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (Pot: ~$50)
With the spades out there, I decided to try and take it down right away. First to act, I bet out with $50. Villain thought for about 5 seconds and pushed for about $200 total. The other two players folded.

Given how he had been playing, I figured three possibilities:
AK, Nut Flush Draw or a Set.

With no spades in my hand, I put my odds at about 70% he had a set, 25% the NFD and 5% AK. There was an inkling of something worse, perhaps KQ with the flush draw, but that was pretty small. With less than 2-1 pot odds, no more behind and at best 25-30% where I have the best of it for now but he has outs, I decide to muck it.

Did I make a mistake? Any advice offered would be great, including why or why not.

Thanks

He showed his holdings if you want to see: <font color="white">J3 spades </font>

[FireStorm]

In most cases in live 1/2 or 1/3 NL, I would be calling this after investing 30% of my stack already. This is KQ or a spade draw often enough to make the call profitable.

I would either attempt a limp raise, or raise more UTG with AKo. Hand is not going to play very well opening in live play for 4BB's UTG.

[kayaker]

[ QUOTE ]
In most cases in live 1/2 or 1/3 NL, I would be calling this after investing 30% of my stack already.

[/ QUOTE ]

To clarify, I started the hand at ~$400, so the $62 I had put in was roughly 15% of my stack, not 30%.

[Peleus]

You've put in about 25% of the effective stacks, which would be the important amount. (Villain had 250?).

With no spades, and a good chance of being against a set and being a massive dog, you made a good lay down.

Probably better places to get the money in.

[FireStorm]

My mistake, misread. However, it's still close, as you have 25% of the effective stack in. I doubt you are up against a set often enough to make this an easy fold, live players would rarely shove 99/55 like this, and he doesn't have KK.

[kayaker]

[ QUOTE ]
My mistake, misread. However, it's still close, as you have 25% of the effective stack in. I doubt you are up against a set often enough to make this an easy fold, live players would rarely shove 99/55 like this, and he doesn't have KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

He certainly didn't have KK, but his level of play was such that I believe he read my hand pretty accurately and knew that I was strong. Given our recent history, I felt like he wanted a call. Against the average player I couldn't make that assumption, but this guy was far better than the average schmuck who thinks beating their home game is evidence they could beat the game in a casino.

I appreciate the advice, guys. It looks like it was a close decision, either way. And as Peleus said, there were probably better places to get my money in.

[Javanewt]

Very close. I would have put him on a flush draw, but still not sure it would be worth the call with the other possibilities. I could go either way -- I think the fold was fine.

[PoppaTMan]

There's a few things I would like to point out in this thread.

Please don't think of the amount you've invested in the pot as something you need to protect. Its purpose has been served and now we have the information from those bets. We now need to focus on our future decisions.

The OP's hand range is missing quite a few key hands, including JTss, QJss, 67ss, 78ss, KJss, and KQss. I don't think we should be discounting these after just a 4BB UTG raise in a (presumably) loose live game. There aren't really any reasonable two pair hands, so it's pretty much sets against this pretty wide range we've determined.

If I'm reading the OP right, we're only getting like 1.75:1, but just by eyeballing it, it should still be a call.