Fit or Fold -- ouch

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
"In other words, if you have the

Qs Th

and the flop is

Ac 9d 4s

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm usually a big fan of Sklansky and/or Malmuth advice. This is the first thing I can remember one of them saying about poker that hit me immediately as flat out wrong. (I don't post about the wise things they say, that would be no fun).

I can't believe the article says to call and doesn't even think this is controversial. First of all, an aggressive player is more likely to play weak aces, so it is particularly dangerous to change an ace to a deuce and reevaluate your hand.

On the "your opponent will automatically make money if you fold", here's an analogy. You are magically placed into a room filled with a thousand $100 bills (i.e., $100,000). There is one other person in the room. He is quicker and more athletic than you, and will get more money. You can adopt the strategy of gathering the bills as fast as you can. Or you can try to shove him out the door so you can grab more money (of course, if this backfires, he will shove you out and lock the door). Naturally, in this situation you just grab what you can. Don't worry about him. He is more athletic, he deserves more money. Or, to put it another way, even if he is not more athletic, of COURSE the other guy will make a theoretical profit, you are both in a room filled with $100 bills forcryinoutloud.

You are a blind and he is a stealer, his range is better and includes more aces, he deserves the pot. More importantly, he deserves a theoretical profit. You are in a room with a pot filled with 4.5 bets in it. Don't worry about his expectation. If you concede here, you will maximize profit over your RANGE of hands versus his RANGE. (If he is a liberal enough stealer that your range beats his, the correct play could be to bet out any two).

In this case you have 6 outs to a 2nd pair, and a couple more outs to a gutshot. Fold. I can't believe that calling was not only stated as correct, but uncontroversial as well?

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. I can't believe that calling was not only stated as correct, but uncontroversial as well?


[/ QUOTE ]

That surprised me too. I'd fold in a heartbeat. Given a typical opponent, he is very likely to hold an ace. If I call he will likely bet the turn whether or not he has an ace. No draws are possible here, but if he has any pair, I won't be able to push him off his hand. As Stoxtrader says, nobody folds in limit Hold'em anymore. That leaves calling to draw to 6 outs that won't always be good-- not a +EV situation.

Calling might be good if my opponent is weak-tight and will give me credit for having an ace when I call his flop bet. In that case, he will often check behind on the turn and fold to a bluff on the river if he has K-high or, if I'm very lucky, even a small pair. I know these players exist because I'm one of them, but they are rare.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Devil:

If you're routinely folding hands like this in short handed limit hold 'em games, you'll lose to a player who will simply bet the flop every time.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Dalek]

I would have thought you could either re-raise if your against a type of player who will fold in limit hold'em or you can call if their not and hope to make second pair which may well be the best hand. If your against just one player they may not have an ace and you may have the best hand at the minute as well as six outs.

I would say the decision depends on the type of player your against but there is nothing wrong with calling an aggresive player.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Devil:

If you're routinely folding hands like this in short handed limit hold 'em games, you'll lose to a player who will simply bet the flop every time.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Mason,

Thanks for the response.

I expect to lose in this situation. I will almost always fold, but hope to make up my losses by putting my opponent in the same position when he is in the blind. Also, I'll sometimes simply bet the flop, occasionally 3-bet before the flop and bet the flop, or (very rarely) check-raise the flop and bet the turn. If I get called in any of these cases, I don't like it, but I'll give up.

I don't see how calling can be good unless there is some chance my opponent will check the turn. That is something I very rarely see, and when I do, I'm suspicious, as it is likely to be a goofy slow-play.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]


Calling might be good if my opponent is weak-tight and will give me credit for having an ace when I call his flop bet. In that case, he will often check behind on the turn and fold to a bluff on the river if he has K-high or, if I'm very lucky, even a small pair. I know these players exist because I'm one of them, but they are rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even against you I don't think calling is correct. The reason I state so is I am constantly assessing my play and seeing whether my opponent can be profitable by floating me like that. And the answer is simply no. Even though I am very aggressive preflop and bet the flop every time, my opponent will get slaughtered if he calls without a pair here, because I simply have an ace or a pair too often. Or even a 9 (the looser the raiser, the more likely a nine). Even if I check through the turn more than I should (and I basically play the turn out of Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players) he doesn't get much equity from drawing to that in a small pot. (classic SSHE concept: don't fight for small pots)

I'm struggling to find a way this is correct. The only way I can see is if the preflop raiser can have hands like 76o.

I will probably follow up with a post with hand ranges and equity. The solution should be clear.

[jogsxyz]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, there's a problem with folding. Because of the size of the pot, your opponent will make money if he bets every time. Specifically, suppose you call every time you have a pair, a draw, or two overcards. With many hands this means you'll be calling (his flop bet) about 50 percent of the time, and that's not enough to stop your opponent from making an automatic long-term profit with these bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this really our main concern? As the chaser we want
our call to be +EV. QsTh has a 43% linear hand
strength(lhs) on a Ac9d4s flop against a random
hand. The aggressive opener has better than a
random hand.
As chaser what should we do on the turn? No turn
card makes us feel safe. As BB vs SB this is at
best a marginal call. Against any other stealer
I'm folding regardless of your advice.

[Mike Pemulis]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Devil:

If you're routinely folding hands like this in short handed limit hold 'em games, you'll lose to a player who will simply bet the flop every time.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason,

When you're playing razz, and bring it in with a King, and it folds around to the guy on your right who raises in the dark with a deuce, what do you do?

~Mike

[Mason Malmuth]

[ QUOTE ]
When you're playing razz, and bring it in with a King, and it folds around to the guy on your right who raises in the dark with a deuce, what do you do?


[/ QUOTE ]

I give up?

MM

[Mike Pemulis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When you're playing razz, and bring it in with a King, and it folds around to the guy on your right who raises in the dark with a deuce, what do you do?


[/ QUOTE ]

I give up?

MM

[/ QUOTE ]

Mason,

Then perhaps the fact that your opponent can make an automatic profit isn't enough to make a fold in a given situation incorrect. That is, maybe when the other guy bets the Axx flop, he should be able to make an automatic profit, and you can go ahead and curb his profit by folding QT.

~Mike