third quick checkup 1/2 fr POSSIBLE PLAYALONG

[BigBadBabar]

1/2 fullring online, playing 7 handed
my image is lagtag fwiw
button seemed aggressive in a small sample
no reads on rest

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero ? and why ?

post your thoughts, and i can continue with the hand later if need be...

[Dr. Matt]

hero bets out. The board is draw-heavy and giving a free card would be bad. If raised, I'd call and see what the turn was before making my decision.

[Fantam]

It would be lovely to check raise the button, but I dont think that you have a guarantee that the button will bet if everyone else checks.

So, I bet the flop. I dont want to see this drawy board checked through.

[kerowo]

I don't relish playing KJo OOP against this many folks so I have no problem with the check.

I would lead this flop and hope MP1 raises it with a draw to push out other drawing hands. If it is raised I call and see what the turn brings, probably c/r most non-club turns.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead this flop and hope MP1 raises it with a draw to push out other drawing hands. If it is raised I call and see what the turn brings, probably c/r most non-club turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not 3-bet the flop if it is raised Kerowo ? You dont really want to have a whiffed flush draw check behind on the turn do you ?

[Dr. Matt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would lead this flop and hope MP1 raises it with a draw to push out other drawing hands. If it is raised I call and see what the turn brings, probably c/r most non-club turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not 3-bet the flop if it is raised Kerowo ? You dont really want to have a whiffed flush draw check behind on the turn do you ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not 3-bet because our equity can change dramatically on teh turn if a straight/flush card hits. If you're worried about a flush draw trying for the free card, may I suggest a donk-bet on a safe turn?

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not 3-bet because our equity can change dramatically on the turn if a straight/flush card hits. If you're worried about a flush draw trying for the free card, may I suggest a donk-bet on a safe turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that not the idea of value betting, so that you gain value from hands which are drawing, when your hand is the favourite to win ?

[Dr. Matt]

Flush draw:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Tc 2c Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.646% 54.65% 00.00% 541 0.00 { KdJs }
Hand 1: 45.354% 45.35% 00.00% 449 0.00 { Ac3c }
</pre><hr />

Verrry close... not enough to 3-bet. But what if the turn is a non-club?

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Tc 2c Jd 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 32 0.00 { KdJs }
Hand 1: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 12 0.00 { Ac3c }
</pre><hr />

Our hand may be the slight favorite to win on the flop, but not enough to 3-bet. Our equity changes dramatically depending on the turn.

[Fantam]

Hmmm, nice analysis.

But, I am not convinced. Your A3s hand included 2 backdoor straight draws ! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I am off to bed now, and will look tommorrow to see if there are further responses. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: I agree that your equity would increase with a safe turn card, but I did not think that you needed to wait for the turn in this instance.

[milesdyson]

ignoring rake, anything &gt; 50% is enough to reraise on flop or turn. don't get confused with river play where you call it 67% because you're losing when 3-bet but you'll still call.

in the posted hand, this decision so doesn't matter. don't open fold. if you check, raise when it gets bet. if you bet, call or 3-bet depending on read.

don't worry so much about these decisions.