NL50 - Flop Trip A's, facing huge aggression on turn

[tedmondh]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $94.90
BB: $30.00
UTG: $51.30
CO: $24.30
BTN: $53.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($9) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $25.50</font>

Villian literally just sat down, so no reads. I figure I'm good on the flop, but then comes the turn, which completes possible FDs. Given that the Villian is totally unknown, can I call here?

[MoP_86]

well you're about 20% to improve to the full house so you're not getting the correct odds to out run him if you do in fact put him on a flush. You're losing to two weaker aces and a couple stronger ones. And might end up splitting if you do hit your full.

I believe this is a pretty significant -EV call

[Ramana]

This would be at least a breakeven call. He is short, if you add dead money a call is easily +ev.

Board: 6c Ah Ac 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.163% 27.17% 04.00% 1016 149.50 { As9d }
Hand 1: 68.837% 64.84% 04.00% 2425 149.50 { 66, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, Jc6c, Jc5c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 7c3c, 7c2c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 5c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, A2o+ }

[hennnerz]

Do you want to consider the possibility that it could just be a shortie floating?

Regardless I think this fold is pretty standard.