PLO $50 - simple hand checkup - reraised pot with marginal hand

[YKMM]

BB is ultra-loose passive and has AAxx most of the time here. Comments?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($60.50)
UTG ($9.75)
UTG+1 ($34.95)
MP1 ($66.25)
MP2 ($51.15)
Hero ($49.25)
Button ($9.75)
SB ($36.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9.5</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $9, Hero calls $6.75.

Flop: ($29.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $27.8</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $39.75</font>, BB calls $11.95.

[oli1980]

Ok i am new to this. But if he has AA there is a 50% chance he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and w/ two other cards he could have a higher flushdraw as well. And thats basically what you have: a 3rd nut flushdraw

If he is passive why do you raise the flop? Do you think he will through away AA... I fold the flop

[chucky]

This shove is good if villian will bet any aces here. If he only bets with flush draw then you are drawing thin.

[alavet]

7hqhjd9d 51.34% 307,709 679
aa** 48.66% 291,612 679

are you really need that coinflip? do you have enough bankroll to enjoy your 2%?

his fold equity is zero

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
7hqhjd9d 51.34% 307,709 679
aa** 48.66% 291,612 679

are you really need that coinflip? do you have enough bankroll to enjoy your 2%?

his fold equity is zero

[/ QUOTE ]

Worst post of the day. Think this through for a little bit and tell me if you still think hero only has a 2% edge by pushing.

P.S. Even if he did, I'd say shove.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
7hqhjd9d 51.34% 307,709 679
aa** 48.66% 291,612 679

are you really need that coinflip? do you have enough bankroll to enjoy your 2%?

his fold equity is zero

[/ QUOTE ]

Worst post of the day. Think this through for a little bit and tell me if you still think hero only has a 2% edge by pushing.

P.S. Even if he did, I'd say shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, hero still only has a 2% edge by shoving, 0% chance opponent folds to a 10% all in raise. The reason we shove is we have value to shove, since its a $40 bet to win $110 on the flop.

[iggymcfly]

Well, that was the point obviously that we have more than a 2% edge on a $39.75 flop bet since our expected value for the hand is $55.83. And that suggesting someone pass up a shove where they're "only" getting a 140% return for variance reasons is patently ridiculous.

[FireStorm]

1) Zero fold equity here. Fairly relevant when you get it all in with an unmade hand on the flop in Omaha.

2) If Villain can have AAxx here as a big part of his range, then a good portion of the rest of his range is KKxx, no? This would leave us in pretty dire straights.

3) As stated if Villain has AAxx, he has the nut flush draw enough of the time to hurt us.

I'd dump this one, move on.

[XXsooted]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Zero fold equity here. Fairly relevant when you get it all in with an unmade hand on the flop in Omaha.

2) If Villain can have AAxx here as a big part of his range, then a good portion of the rest of his range is KKxx, no? This would leave us in pretty dire straights.

3) As stated if Villain has AAxx, he has the nut flush draw enough of the time to hurt us.

I'd dump this one, move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) As said in previous posts, we have a positive expectation versus AAxx, so we don't need fold equity.

2) Most people don't play AAxx and KKxx the same way. AAxx is far more likely.

3) is covered in 1)

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]

3) As stated if Villain has AAxx, he has the nut flush draw enough of the time to hurt us.

[/ QUOTE ]

He will have the nut flush draw around 22% of the time roughly. We only need 36% equity to justify calling. A call is automatic here. We have 50% equity 80% of the time.