25NL - KK on staright/FD board

[VLV]

Villain is 20/10/3 over 30 hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($26.90)
Hero ($50.60)
SB ($5.15)
BB ($38.10)
UTG ($25.55)
MP ($32.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.85</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $2.15.

Flop: ($6.35) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $5</font>, Hero ????

Should I just fold here? Or raise an fold to a push.
I don't think he's doing this with any hand I beat. He's pretty tight (although small sample) so the only hands he could really even call a 3bet PF w/ are TT+ or AK. But then again I do have an overpair and a straight draw.

[Eddi]

Imho you're underestimating his range and 20/10 calling 3b isn't just a set or AK in this spot (KK or AA would've most probably 4-bet pf). Given his flop bet I'd add 99, AQ, KQ, AcJc, (maybe also QJs, JTs?). So I don't think fold is an option. Raising isn't that good of an idea either since if he does have the best hand (or pair+draw) at the moment he'll push and you'll just have burnt additional $$s. I'd call - if you improve on turn, great, if not and he pots it then I'd consider (not very enthusiastically) folding.

[bsheck]

Definitely don't fold. You have an overpair that might be good and and an OESD that's probably good. I also like calling. You have position and you'll get to see what your opponent does on the turn. If you miss your straight and he shows strength again, I'd probably fold.

[jack492505]

yea i think its a little weak to just fold it. call see a turn in position and pray you make a straight. If the turn bricks and he bets a reasonable amount again I would fold.

[VLV]

Yeah, I like that line of thinking. I think I played the hand pretty badly. I raised to $15, he pushed and I called.

[jack492505]

by the way i don't think folding the flop is all that bad either. You have a pretty marginal hand, and even if you hit the turn only some of your outs are definitely good, and you're unlikely to get much action from hands you beat.

[skibbel]

There is no reasonable hand we're ahead except a bluff (which in unlikely in this spot imho).
Maybe some AQ/KQ but it's usually TT+/AK.
Edit:
Hand 0: 76.124% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.876% { KK }

But some addinational hands change everything
Hand 0: 56.724% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 43.276% { KK }

Hand 0: 42.649% { TT+, AJs, KQs, AJo, KQo }
Hand 1: 57.351% { KK }

With dead money that should be an all-in.

[Rounder101]

I like calling and reevaluating turn.

[Ribsauce]

[ QUOTE ]
by the way i don't think folding the flop is all that bad either. You have a pretty marginal hand, and even if you hit the turn only some of your outs are definitely good, and you're unlikely to get much action from hands you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]I like this too. By calling and hoping to improve with a straight draw you are calling 5 to win the pot, nothing more because you aren't getting any action if you make a 4 card straight. Furthermore, you only have 6 clean outs because the two diamond cards are not pretty. And of course you don't want to make a set here.

I call against maniacs here sometimes, but his stats aren't maniac stats

[ QUOTE ]
With dead money that should be an all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? He isn't calling with a lot of the hands which are ahead that you added. this guy isn't a maniac. If you go all in, he is turning up a better hand than 1 pair almost all the time.

The problem here is there is no turn card that makes you feel better. If he bets you are beat, or if not you are folding anyways

[traz]

I'm honestly ok with just open folding. I mean...sample size is small for his stats, but I still don't think it's profitable to play here.