NL100 - Passive FPS with Set against a niTAG?

[Reni]

UTG+1 is 15/11 don’t really have to strong of a read on him. He seems like a typical ‘niTAG’, I tend to assume that a player with these sort of stats is at least a semi thinker until I have a read otherwise. My sample isn’t huge on him so it’s also possible he has just been running a touch cold.

The table is playing pretty tight, I’m at 24/20ish and have been taking down pots mainly without contest. I haven’t been getting too crazy but I have been 2nd barrelling and floating/peeling light to some extent, but nothing too note worthy.

Effective stacks $100 (I cover him)

UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4, CO folds, I call OTB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], blinds fold.

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($8.75)

UTG+1 bets $7, I call.

Turn - A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($22)

UTG+1 bets $19, I call.

River A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($59)

UTG+1 checks, I shove AI, $70 more to him.


Most of the time I’d raise the flop here, but decided not to as I hadn’t really been raising a lot of flops and felt I could get more value against this opponent by playing the hand a little deceptively. That board fits his range pretty well and I’m not so worried about giving free cards, I think by calling it’s very likely he’ll bet the turn again, either as protection against a draw or possibly just as a second barrel.

On the turn I was going to raise but felt stacks were a little shallow and that there could be more value in repping a busted heart draw on the river. If he bet’s the river again then the money is going in anyway so obv I’ll only need to rep the busted draw if he checks. I was thinking specifically of hands like AJ which I think he can get away from with a turn raise but might call the river with. I think AK maybe too but I’m not sure that he really is going to fold AK to a turn raise whatever Baluga tells him. If the river was a heart I’d bet about $36.

What do you think of this line - am I out thinking myself?

Can a aggressive player like me really represent a flush draw like this, or does it just look like a monster? Do I lose too much value when the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] does hit that it offsets the extra value I might gain by playing this way? ...or is this standard!