How sure are you that you are +EV?

[Insistent_]

You sit down at the table. Buy in your chips, makes yourself comforatble...

now, how sure are you that you are REALLY +EV? I mean, you can't be 100% sure usually. If you don't have oh so many stats you might be unfortunate to sit down at am unusually good table where you are -EV.

I think playing -EV is terrible and I think that it's worse than some players realize. The worst case of all is if you THINK you are +EV but really it is the contrary. Then you may even put in a lot of hours trying to "maximize your winnings". Playing -EV makes you loose more money than you realize. Every dollar lost would otherwise have been there for your use and ready to be invested in order to yield further profit.

And if you play X hours winning (now assuming we are winning and loosing equally) and X hours loosing you will have to play X hours winning just to get back to where you started. And to make things worse we may be loosing more when we DO loose than we do when we win... so you can easily see how much time flies out the window.

The worst thing of all is to play when you THINK you are +ev but you aren't. You may even try to "put in a lot of hours". Therefore, my idea is that:

When you MIGHT make the mistake of thinking that you are winning when you are in fact loosing, you should downgrade your expected win rate considerably.

Basically I am implying that before you sit down you should think about things like: how much am I willing to loose before concluding that I am a loosing player at the table? If it is a lot then I need a MUCH bigger bankroll. It's really like the "reverse implied odds" concept... the harder the situations will be to judge the less I want to jeopardize in the beginning.

Just some random ramblings. You may comment. =)

[jstill]

people honestly go their whole career and when that one prolonged downswing occurs it brings back all those demons of wondering "Am i really plus ev? Am I a true winner, have game conditions changed so I no longer am or am I playing differently so I no longer am?"

results oriented thinking is a bitch, and the fact pokers a game where decisions arent rewarded based on merit makes it very hard to sift through the smoke and determine what was actually the best play at any given time...

Sometimes u make a call ur not sure about and lose and think u shouldnt have called or vice versa... this isnt always neccessarily true, the great thing is anytime ur not sure u can come to 2p2 and ask and if everyone thinks one thing thats probably a decent indicator, and u ll likely know which posters have success and who u should listen to...

so in conclusion most people often at times arent sure if they are +EV but we typically strive to surround ourselves with the worst players we can to hope to ensure it.

At a live NL or limit small stakes game at any casino I cant imagine any half way decent 2p2er not being +EV in the long run even with rake and tips to be honest... but hitting the long run playing live takes quite a few hours of play (months) although ur edge live should be higher than online due to worse competition and the benefit of added information (physical tells assuming ur good at reading people) so that helps for sure which is why people still play live.

[PantsOnFire]

If you get all your chips in the middle as the favourite in most hands and lose the pot, you are +EV.

If you chase draws against the odds and usually hit them and win the pot, you are -EV.

[El_Hombre_Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
If you get all your chips in the middle as the favourite in most hands and lose the pot, you are +EV.

If you chase draws against the odds and usually hit them and win the pot, you are -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

In NL, if you are capable of being honest with yourself, it is this easy.

And you can expand this to how much you paid for your draws, and how much you got paid off on your draws.

I don't think its that hard to figure out if you have a significant advantage.

I play NL 1 or 2 6 max online and if after 50 hands or so there isn't a player or two with retarded stats I leave.

[Xanthro]

Watch how you play at the table, are you up because you got lucky, or are you down because someone called without odds and got lucky?

If you are making the correct plays, you can tell without even caring if you are up or down. You should know if you have an edge.

[JLimbs]

[ QUOTE ]
If you get all your chips in the middle as the favourite in most hands and lose the pot, you are +EV.

If you chase draws against the odds and usually hit them and win the pot, you are -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you are right generally speaking. However in the short term even that can be misleading. Often when people are "running well" they will be cold decking people left and right.

When this is happening it can make you think you are better then you actually are. There is no skill in having aces against kings preflop or having the nut flush against the second nut. These are extreme examples, but there are lots of other spots in no limit cash games where anyone at the table would win playing your cards.

I think a better indicator is extracting chips in marginal spots and being able to make key folds. Its a lot harder to gauge but is the biggest thing that sets you apart from your opponents.

The toughness of your opponents will probably play a pretty key role in telling if you are capable of beating the game. There isn't always someone stacking off with flush draws on the turn and calling pot size bets with gut shots. Sometimes its smaller mistakes like misbetting hands and checking behind on the river instead of extracting value. Again these are harder to spot, but for a seasoned player it should be within your arsenal to keep track of these things.

-Jerry

[Dr. Tre]

Jerry, you are exactly right. Your +EV should be from how you play your cards in the long run. What makes one player better than another is how much more they win/how much less they lose in one situation compared to how another player would do in the same situation. Anyone can pick up aces and win a big pot, but the better players will lay down the aces when they are in a trouble spot. They will extract more chips from weaker hands. They will be able to manipulate their opponent into bluffing the river. They will do all the small things that will add up huge in the long run.

[El_Hombre_Grande]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you get all your chips in the middle as the favourite in most hands and lose the pot, you are +EV.

If you chase draws against the odds and usually hit them and win the pot, you are -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you are right generally speaking. However in the short term even that can be misleading. Often when people are "running well" they will be cold decking people left and right.

When this is happening it can make you think you are better then you actually are. There is no skill in having aces against kings preflop or having the nut flush against the second nut. These are extreme examples, but there are lots of other spots in no limit cash games where anyone at the table would win playing your cards.

I think a better indicator is extracting chips in marginal spots and being able to make key folds. Its a lot harder to gauge but is the biggest thing that sets you apart from your opponents.

The toughness of your opponents will probably play a pretty key role in telling if you are capable of beating the game. There isn't always someone stacking off with flush draws on the turn and calling pot size bets with gut shots. Sometimes its smaller mistakes like misbetting hands and checking behind on the river instead of extracting value. Again these are harder to spot, but for a seasoned player it should be within your arsenal to keep track of these things.

-Jerry

[/ QUOTE ]

that's my point. If someone at your table isn't stacking off with draws or top pair, you are at the wrong table.

Marginal advantages are destroyed by the rake. You need a clear cut advantage to make money. Online, this means being willing to get up and table select. Maybe thats the distinction at 10/20 NL or 30/60 limit; but I play NL 1 and 2 and up to limit 15/30 online and if a player's only weakness was failing to value bet the river I wouldn't count them as a reason to stay at a table. I prefer a clueless parade, but will settle (in a NL game) for one player who wants to put his chips in with a draw or TP.

[JLimbs]

I understand what you mean about table selection, and at the lowest limits you are absolutely correct. The best thing about playing 1-2 and 2-5 no limit is there are lots of games to choose from. You can keep transferring tables through out the night until you find that great table and get paid off.

However as you move up through the limits the number of games running gets much smaller and the skill of your opponents gets much higher. Table selection is still important, but its not every day that you will have that monster advantage. Other times you will have to play in games where you are still +EV in the long run, but you will have to work a little harder for it.

Knowing how to play against fish is great, but in order to take your game to the next level sooner or later you are going to have to play against people that know what they are doing. Its just another part of the natural progression that poker players go through.

-Jerry

[Insistent_]

... and to expand on what JLimbs said, playing very high stakes you will even as a very good player sometimes happen to log some hours being -EV in the long run. Thinking else would be naïve.