Party 750K - Bet this river?

[hockey coach]

Early in the Party 750K - no strong reads, I haven't been out of line and haven't seen villian do anything OOL either.

Comments on all streets welcome, especially interested in the range you guys have for the villian after his turn call and whether or not to value bet the river here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t60 (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t7560)
SB (t6545)
BB (t5443)
UTG (t8422)
UTG+1 (t1755)
UTG+2 (t4463)
MP1 (t6039)
MP2 (t6968)
MP3 (t10860)
Hero (t4760)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t60, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t245</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls t185.

Flop: (t580) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, UTG calls t300.

Turn: (t1180) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t825</font>, UTG calls t825.

River: (t2830) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">

Hero??

[mornelth]

With no strong reads I check behind. JQ is a possible holding, and JcQc is not out of line, AcTc probably plays like that too. Slowplayed AA or QQ, (KJ?) may call you and lose, but I think you'll find yourself behind often enough that a bet here is not +EV. If you bet small and villain puts you all-in - you will hate both options, if you push - you'll be out of tourney fairly often here. Chips yo ustand to gain the times when villain calls you and is behind are NOWHERE NEAR the value of losing your entire stack in the spot where you could have just checked.

This opinion is brought to you by - MORNELTH, who neved played in 750K and only once in 500K, so keep that in mind.

[NHFunkii]

yes!
while a flush is a slight possibility, I think another k is a larger possibility. go value!

[hockey coach]

LOL - thanks for the full disclosure.

[Maulik]

Hey,

Clearly we aren't too concerned with the back door flush. Given the passive line villain has taken, it feels as though he has a bare K or AT, QT, etc.

There are too many hands he could have been drawing with that's he's not calling river bets with, however, it seems quite reasonable the aforementioned worse hands he's calling you down with will call bets on the river.

value

edit: if he had a boat, you would think he'd try to commit you on the turn, etc.

[mornelth]

So - you think your opponent in 750K will flat-call two PSB's with AT on a KKT board?

I give more credit to my opponents in $20+2... Maybe I give them TOO much credit?...

[Maulik]

mornelth,

I think you do.