25NL SC FD on flop

[FreshMeat]

villian goes too far with TP
17/6/1 170 hands

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $31.25
BB: $27.30
UTG: $38.25
UTG+1: $21.85
MP1: $58.10
MP2: $17.20
MP3: $24.20
CO: $12.10
Hero (BTN): $28.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $1.00</font>, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">UTG+1 bets $3.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero ???

[achtzhen]

I feel like this is a clear fold. He only min r which could be speculative hand or a monster. QJ and T9 are here all day long. You dont have the odds in my opinion, no help from the other limpers, and no implied odds. You wont get much more money out of the hands I think play this way.

[ship_it_trebek]

UTG+1 made a pretty standard raise preflop not a minraise. You aren't getting odds so I'm folding. If you know that he'll over play a TPTK type of hand even when a scare flush card hits, then I guess you can merit a call. However, most villains will shut down with a turn club, and if villain is c-betting into multiple opponents, its probable that he likes his hand and will fire harder on the turn.

[Jeff P]

I would fold. I agree with earlier posters that you are not likely to win any more money from him if you do hit your flush, so your implied odds aren't very good. Plus, you are not drawing to the nuts, so you need to discount your outs/implied odds down a little further.

[Mingdu]

Never call ... make it $9 and fold to a shove or fold right here

I'm ok with either

[CazicT]

Clear fold? Really?

He raised from early pos. I think there are only a few suited hands he would do this with, so I believe it is a very high probability our flush draw is live.

If we have a full 9 outs, we only need to make an extra 5 dollars on the turn and river if we hit to make this break even. The pot on the turn would be 10.35. We can't make 5 dollars on the turn and river with a pot that big and a stationy villian?

Seems like a clear call to me, maybe i'm a chaser though.

[Teddie]

[ QUOTE ]
villian goes too far with TP


[/ QUOTE ]


Does this not make folding here pretty bad?

[achtzhen]

If we have a full 9 outs, we only need to make an extra 5 dollars on the turn and river if we hit to make this break even . The pot on the turn would be 10.35. We can't make 5 dollars on the turn and river with a pot that big and a stationy villian?

Seems like a clear call to me, maybe i'm a chaser though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed it was 25NL opps. Anyways im still not seeing that calling this is the right play. Villain went in with a solid c-bet and will most likely charge draws again on the turn. Especially if he over plays TP.

[CazicT]

Maybe i'll do some pokerstovin' if I have time at lunch today, but the only hand in his range that crushes us is AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] . It's not completely impossible for him to have AJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I guess, but 6% PFR is somewhat tight and he is in EP.

If he has a set, then obviously we lose an out (K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) and he has a higher redraw likelyhood, but then he'll be less likely to fold when we hit too giving us higher implied odds.

This doesn't feel like a fold to me, but i'll try to come up with some actual numbers if I can.

[seki]

[ QUOTE ]
You aren't getting odds so I'm folding. If you know that he'll over play a TPTK type of hand even when a scare flush card hits, then I guess you can merit a call. However, most villains will shut down with a turn club, and if villain is c-betting into multiple opponents, its probable that he likes his hand and will fire harder on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]