50 NL have a set but CO takes a strange line

forestwithin · #1 08-20-2007, 09:04 AM

CO is 62.5/25/2.2 but I only have about 20 hands with him.
MP2 is 43/5/1.8 after a similar amount of hands.
I'm calling on the button here looking to take the pot heads-up depending on the flop, or in the hopes of hitting a set, but several other people come along.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB ($39.90)
BB ($88.40)
UTG ($15.40)
UTG+1 ($5.10)
MP1 ($10.35)
MP2 ($48)
MP3 ($50.25)
CO ($53.60)
Hero ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $2.5, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($10.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($10.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets $6, CO calls $6, Hero raises to $18, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $12, CO raises to $51.1, Hero folds, MP2 calls $27.50 (All-In).

River: ($125.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $125.35

After he checks the flop, then calls a bet on the turn, then raises my raise, it feels like a monster. I'd have to imagine that jacks-aces would bet the flop and since there's no flush draw, a set might play like this? People like to slowplay at this level. I timed out while thinking that I was probably beaten, and I never look to fold sets but it just seems like this may be a place to do so, but I was wondering what you all thought.

Mingdu · #2 08-20-2007, 09:08 AM

wow ... I get it in there

overcards, AT, AK even ... 99 with the squeeze from CO

CazicT · #3 08-20-2007, 10:19 AM

I sorta like the fold here. It really does seem like you're beat. If he has an overset you have 1 out. Against a straigth you have more, but not enough given the pot odds. There is a CHANCE your good here too of course. He might have some kind of 2 pair or be playing a flush draw weirdly or something. I don't think this chance is high enough to make the call though.

Folding sets is tough at this level, but I think this might be a place to do it.

Teddie · #4 08-20-2007, 10:25 AM

I dont understand playing a hand like 4's then folding when we hit our set on a dry board.

Also, Why raise the turn if your planning on folding to a shove? With the stats these Villans have i cant fold here.

FireStorm · #5 08-20-2007, 11:21 AM

Don't raise the turn if you plan on folding when you get what you want, which is to be shoved on.

That being said, if there's ever a spot to fold a set, this MIGHT be it, since your opponent really can't have much that you beat. He might be overplaying two pair once in awhile, but given that this is a multiway pot, you may actually be toast in this spot.

seki · #6 08-20-2007, 05:42 PM

Smells like TT/88, but I can't fold here. When you play mid/small pps for set value, you're taking into consideration the fact you pay off in set over set situations. People take strange lines all the time, and the small chance that he's playing oddly with anything other than an overset or turned straight (checked the up and down on the flop? bleh) is enough to call. Almost half your stack is already in the pot! Would you fold with these odds if the action had come on the flop?

effang · #7 08-20-2007, 05:50 PM

you guys are crazy. you folded the best hand by far.

62/25 is the CO.
45/5 is the MP.

CO shoved OVER hero's raise, and MP's smooth called. they're donks, they have nothing. AAKK maybe. TT if CO is super lucky and spiked it. against donks i never fold set, especially with all the 2p possibilities out there. 8T, 54, random draws that he's going insano on. crazy players running 63/25 treat AA as the nuts, and they slow play them like crazy.

bottomset · #8 08-20-2007, 07:05 PM

its a bad fold

ship_it_trebek · #9 08-20-2007, 07:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its a bad fold

[/ QUOTE ]

forestwithin · #10 08-20-2007, 07:39 PM

If I get this action on the flop I'm probably not folding, because like I said, overpairs may be looking to get it in there, or are pretty much always betting unless they have aces (in which case I'd still imagine a bet). CO's VPIP and PFR are maniacal but neither player is super aggressive after the flop. I don't see people checking overpairs in a multiway flop like this very much. Even donks bet when they have a good hand that is vulnerable (whether they realize that or not), and this play just smells like a slowplay to me. Prior to my raise, no one has shown any strength so I have to think I'm good, especially since his PFR is 25% and he is in stealing position, but given CO's sudden shove, I really started to doubt that. I thought I was ahead of MP2 since if he had a set and missed a checkraise on the flop, I think he would reshove my turn raise instead of call it (unless he wanted to keep CO in the hand), with a flush draw out there and an unlikely straight possible. Either way, MP2 and I have awoken and CO doesn't seem phased.

What 2 pair hands make sense here? 8 10 doesnt seem likely because he would bet the flop. 45 is the only possibility but I really don't know if that is in his 25% raise range, maybe 45 suited I'm not sure. 68 VPIP makes me think he would limp with that.

Anyways, CO showed down 10's and MP2 had 23 (not spades).

It was my most lively hand of the day so I thought I would share it. In all honesty I hadn't totally decided to fold since I hate folding sets, but my timer ran out while I was trying to figure it out where I stood. Thanks for the comments.