How would you play in this spot - middle pair + gut shot sfd, deep

[johnnypokeher]

Saturday $1000 guarantee rebuy at UB. I am at about 40xbb, villain about half that 20xbb. Current blinds are 600/1200 with 125 ante. Field is 125 players left.

I know a read is helpful in these situations [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] but The villain was moved to the table maybe like 10 hands ago, hasn't played much. If it helps (?), his tourney statistics are 37 played all small stakes, 3 cashes, one final table with average finish of 61/100.

I play mostly SSNL 6 max , and I am lost in these spots in MTT.

flop: bet sizing? I have this player heads up and he called from MP, seems like a good flop for me right?

Turn: should I shove here?

River: Lets say I call his turn bet, and river plays like this. Do I fold?

Thanks for comments.

Villain is MP: -- --
Hero is SB with: 7s 5s
Pre-flop:

UTG folds. UTG+1 folds. UTG+2 folds. MP1
folds. Villain calls. MP2: folds.
CO: folds. Button: folds. Hero:
calls. BB: checks.

Flop (board: 6s 7h 9s):

howardbeale bets 2500. BB: folds. Villain
calls.

Turn (board: 6s 7h 9s 9d):

howardbeale checks. doggrobber bets 2600.
howardbeale???

River (board: 6s 7h 9s 9d 3d):

Hero checks. Villain bets 15050.
Hero??

[KidSensation]

I can't imagine you're ahead here. A limp from mid position can mean a lot of things, such as AXs, midpairs (44-88) and KQs. The way he played this hand makes me think he called with a midpair (66 or 77), hit his set on the flop and turned the boat. His little bet on the turn feels like a trap and then he shoves it all in there on the river to make it seem like he missed. I think he's strong and this is a fold...

[johnnypokeher]

Bump, only one response.

I poker stoved and it looks like I have grand equity vs his possible range of hands. Any one else agree/disagree?? Come on!! Give me some feedback you hooligans!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

594,000 games 0.031 secs 19,161,290 games/sec

Board: 6s 9s 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.123% 65.31% 00.81% 387952 4816.00 { 75s }
Hand 1: 33.877% 33.07% 00.81% 196416 4816.00 { JJ-55, A6s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }