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#1
08-18-2007, 05:17 PM
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$26 Satellite, A9 call please help
Top 18 get seats. 22 left on this hand. I'm 15th in chips, but 14-22 all pretty much have short stacks (around 2800-1600), no one is crippled. The SB in this hand has played the last 50 hands. Literally, he did not fold once the past 5 orbits. I'm clueless what to do here. None of the hand converters worked for me.
Full Tilt Poker Game #3291502904: Super Sat to FTOPS Main Event (24764165), Table 7 - 150/300 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:24:12 ET - 2007/08/18 Seat 1: toolband (4,185) Seat 2: dxcnj (2,360) Seat 3: ShipItFish (23,593) Seat 5: Metnut (2,505) Seat 6: ematz (1,646) Seat 7: LAGJEM (9,182), is sitting out Seat 8: Check-Donk (5,874) toolband antes 25 dxcnj antes 25 ShipItFish antes 25 Metnut antes 25 ematz antes 25 LAGJEM antes 25 Check-Donk antes 25 ShipItFish posts the small blind of 150 Metnut posts the big blind of 300 The button is in seat #2 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Metnut [As 9s] ematz folds LAGJEM folds Check-Donk folds toolband has 15 seconds left to act toolband folds dxcnj folds ShipItFish raises to 23,568, and is all in Metnut ??? 
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#4
08-18-2007, 05:50 PM
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Re: $26 Satellite, A9 call please help
[ QUOTE ]
the strat is to fold into the money then? im going to have zero chances to ever steal the blinds and i dont think i have enough to fold into the money here. please explain. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah basically I would be open folding anything but QQ+. You are 15th so you do have enough chips to fold in. Assuming SB is pushing any two here which he probably is A9 is only 62% or so and calling off your chips here is very very -EV.
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#5
08-18-2007, 06:06 PM
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Re: $26 Satellite, A9 call please help
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] the strat is to fold into the money then? im going to have zero chances to ever steal the blinds and i dont think i have enough to fold into the money here. please explain. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah basically I would be open folding anything but QQ+. You are 15th so you do have enough chips to fold in. Assuming SB is pushing any two here which he probably is A9 is only 62% or so and calling off your chips here is very very -EV. [/ QUOTE ] That is way too tight of playing requirement with the OP's stack. He is short stacked and he defiantly cannot fold into the money with these stacks. He will need to double up at least once, maybe twice to win a seat. (Or do a good job picking up blinds). If the villian has been pushing every hand I am probably calling here. Against your average opponent I make the laydown and plan on taking some blinds when in position.
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#6
08-18-2007, 06:19 PM
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Re: $26 Satellite, A9 call please help
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] the strat is to fold into the money then? im going to have zero chances to ever steal the blinds and i dont think i have enough to fold into the money here. please explain. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah basically I would be open folding anything but QQ+. You are 15th so you do have enough chips to fold in. Assuming SB is pushing any two here which he probably is A9 is only 62% or so and calling off your chips here is very very -EV. [/ QUOTE ] That is way too tight of playing requirement with the OP's stack. He is short stacked and he defiantly cannot fold into the money with these stacks. He will need to double up at least once, maybe twice to win a seat. (Or do a good job picking up blinds). If the villian has been pushing every hand I am probably calling here. Against your average opponent I make the laydown and plan on taking some blinds when in position. [/ QUOTE ] This is my line of thinking. The stacks are too close that I can't fold into the money. Also, since the sb has not folded in 50 straight hands, I have zero chances to push and steal the blinds which normally by my strat at this point. Do I really have a 62% chance to cash by folding all hands? I havn't played enough of these sats to know that. I think im going to cash about 95% if i win this hand though.
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#8
08-18-2007, 06:29 PM
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Re: $26 Satellite, A9 call please help
[ QUOTE ]
I have zero chances to push and steal the blinds which normally by my strat at this point. Do I really have a 62% chance to cash by folding all hands? I havn't played enough of these sats to know that. I think im going to cash about 95% if i win this hand though. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent Point! Since you cannot steal blinds in this situation your only hope is to make a stand at some point.
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#9
08-18-2007, 06:31 PM
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Re: $26 Satellite, A9 call please help
[ QUOTE ]
Guys if SB flipped up 72o before he shoved calling here is still very very bad. [/ QUOTE ] Why? Have you ever played a satellite before? Do you seriously think he is folding into the money? The blinds are 150-300, not 1000-2000. There is more play left in this thing, players will not be dropping left and right like an 11R turbo on stars.
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#10
08-18-2007, 07:28 PM
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Re: $26 Satellite, A9 call please help
Hero M=3.7 and PPs show up on avg 1 in 16 hands. Problem is while doubling up now will put you in the money, doubling up next round might not. You're only chance to steal is UTG, which isn't much of a chance.
This is really tough. One argument for folding is that villain's super-LAG might blow up over next 8 hands and he switches gears.
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