Passing up an edge

[Atropos]

I'm not that experienced in tourneys, so forgive me if this is ridiculous. This hand is from the Party 18k guaranteed tourney. There are around 140 Players left, average stack is around 11000 and the bubble will start maybe in an hour... I'm one of the 5 biggest stacks in the tourney and probably the best player at my table. However these players do not fold very much, so it's not possible to exploit them on the bubble too much. (Waiting for good hands is a great option though).

In this hand I felt like I had a very good read on BB that he certainly had a hand he didnt want to play postflop with. His range could never include AA-QQ, and JJ would surprise me alot. Since I have the correct odds to call against an "AKs,AKo,JJ" range and I suspect he could have AQ sometimes too, this seems like an easy hand.

I was just wondering if this could be one of those situations were passing up a small +EV edge could be right. I mean if I win this hand, I will have many chips that are "useless" at the moment since no other player at this table has a comparable stacks and I cant use these extra chips to double up. If I lose this hand I will soon be in Push/Fold mode.


NL Texas Hold'em Trny: 35050900 Level: 6 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, January 01, 01:00:00 ET 1970

Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: xy ( 7,540 )
Seat 2: xy ( 7,500 )
Seat 3: BB ( 15,070 )
Seat 4: xy ( 7,720 )
Seat 5: xy ( 6,700 )
Seat 6: xy ( 17,090 )
Seat 8: xy ( 12,780 )
Seat 10: HERO ( 21,335 )
Seat 7: xy ( 7,300 )
Seat 9: xy ( 6,710 )
Trny: 35050900 Level: 6
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Td Tc ]
-6 folds-
HERO raises [1,200]
-2 folds-
BB is all-In [14,670]
HERO calls [13,870]

[Dalek]

Why coudn't the BB have AA-QQ when he has re-raised the big stack and put himself All-In?

I would fold unless i had a really good read and the BB was known to shove a lot pre-flop. With your position in the tournament, i'd wait for a better spot. But i'm a coward.

[Vetgirig]

The problem with the re-raise is that it is too large - an overbet. A raise to 3-4K would be the norm. So something is amiss. The calling range is very read dependent - how does FI play ?

I would not at all be surpriced at QQ/JJ since many players are afraid of them - they are very hard to play with overcards on the flop.

If I was given a bit better odds I might call - but now the raise is too large to call with TT. I wouldn't like I but I would probably fold.

On the other hand - there has been a trend of very light re-steals on the online turnament circle lately. If you have stolen the blinds too often - it could be BB way of saying - stop stealing my blind. CO is the normal steal position these days.