500NL live: river decision

[cowboy billy]

Ok, live 500NL game with 7 players

hero has been active in position, nothing crazy

villain plays a weak tag game

folded to hero who raises to 20 with AKo in the CO, folded to BB who calls

pot: 40, flop: KJ6r

villain bets 30, hero calls, pot: 100, turn: 5

villain checks, hero bets 70, villain calls, pot: 240, river: A

no flush possibilities, villain checks, hero bets 120, villain crai 315

hero...?

195 for a pot of 695

[Albert Moulton]

weak tags don't call QTs or QTo OOP heads up in a raised pot. They don't generally call KJ OOP heads up either. AK might make sense if he isn't one to reraise preflop with that. AQ/AJ is possible, but again a weakish TAG would fold those preflop to the raise. 66 is possible, but why wouldn't he c/r the turn if he had a set and planned to c/r the river?

I think AK is most likely. AJs next. QT possible, but unlikely. 66 seems possible, but less likely than AK.

I think you should call the all-in and expect AK/AJs/QTs/66. I suppose some kind of bluff is posible a small percentage of the time. So, given that the pot odds are about 3.5:1 you should call.

I think if you weren't willing to call the crai on the river, you should have check behind on the end.

So, call.

[Praetor]

i think he has you beat almost always

[cowboy billy]

weak TAG isn't the right description, sry for that

with weak I meant that he doesn't play all that well, the TAG part is wrong, he plays medium loose pre flop and has medium aggression

he'll limp frequently and call basically any raise behind him, which is normal for this game bc everybody wants to see the flop, esp when they've already contributed some money

he had also raised a few hands himself, mostly IP

QT is def in his calling range here

after the flop he plays weak as well, haven't seen him get out of line with big bluffs, but will call off pretty light

after villain donked the flop, which he had done a couple times before, I planned on either raising the turn or the river, after he c/called turn and checked river, my plan was to b/f which is what I did after he shoved

I'm 99.99% sure this guy isn't capable of this kind of river bluff, but I'm not sure if he'd think a crai on this river with a hand like AJ would be for value

like I said, I've seen this guy stack off light before, but that was by calling, not by raising, which is also why I opted for a b/f instead of a check behind, bc I did put him on QT after the turn action

[ijustliketoplay]

i dont see what you are beating here if villain is as weak as you describe

[duh]

If villan isn't the type to go crazy with 2 pair, then fold is fine.

[cowboy billy]

yeah, I really wanted to fold, though the 3.5:1 pot odds made it a little more difficult

I open mucked, which I immediately regretted doing, bc I don't like showing hands, esp not big laydown hands, I thought it might induce villain to show his and I was curious obv, but he didn't show