Cardinals +700 to win NL Central

insanity31 · #1 08-16-2007, 05:06 PM

***WARNING*** I live in St. Louis.

This is at bodog, of course.

Before today's game, the Cardinals were trading at +376 at wsex, and I assume they will be around +300 after the game today. The market is paused now a wsex obviously, but for some reason bodog still allows you to bet their lines during games. I was about to post this last night when they were +750, but bodog closed down their lines minutes after I bet it. I assumed they would open it back up at around +350-400, but this line is still laughable.

Great bet on value alone, but if anyone needs more analysis, I'd be happy to give it. I don't think this line will be around much longer, and just wanted to type this up quickly.

RickAstleyFan · #2 08-16-2007, 05:09 PM

It's all because of Rick Ankiel.

MrFeelNothin · #3 08-16-2007, 05:28 PM

PECOTA says Cardinals have only a 9% chance.

wheatrich · #4 08-16-2007, 06:21 PM

when the dodgers had over a 50% chance of winning I grabbed them at +175--of course now it's around 8% [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

awsome008 · #5 08-16-2007, 06:33 PM

Hmm +700 is pretty sick I can't find anywhere near close to those odds. Seeking a hedge now....

insanity31 · #6 08-16-2007, 06:39 PM

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PECOTA says Cardinals have only a 9% chance.

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This means absolutely nothing, DUCY?

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Hmm +700 is pretty sick I can't find anywhere near close to those odds. Seeking a hedge now....

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The market at wsex is now open, cards are at +270. You can sell them at -335 for an 11.7% arb between bodog and wsex if you have both books.

MrFeelNothin · #7 08-16-2007, 06:57 PM

Or you could just sell them at -335 and not arb.

Post-Oak · #8 08-17-2007, 09:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
***WARNING*** I live in St. Louis.

This is at bodog, of course.

Before today's game, the Cardinals were trading at +376 at wsex, and I assume they will be around +300 after the game today. The market is paused now a wsex obviously, but for some reason bodog still allows you to bet their lines during games. I was about to post this last night when they were +750, but bodog closed down their lines minutes after I bet it. I assumed they would open it back up at around +350-400, but this line is still laughable.

Great bet on value alone, but if anyone needs more analysis, I'd be happy to give it. I don't think this line will be around much longer, and just wanted to type this up quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think +700 is still -EV. This of course means that shorting Stl on WSEX is ++EV, which is what I believe.

Here's my analysis of St. Louis' chances.

With about 1/4 of the season left, they are 2.5 games behind Milwaukee and 2 behind the Cubs. This may not sound like much, but if you treated each of the remaining games as coinflips (i.e. every team has exactly a 50% chance to win), then this would give Stl a 17.8% chance of winning the division. This shows that being 2.5 games out of first, as well as being behind two teams, is a huge disadvantage.

At 17-18% to win the division, 7 to 1 would be ++EV, but when you consider the relative strengths of each of these three teams, it is clear that Stl has even less of a chance.

The Cards have been outscored 533-596 this season, which leads me to believe that they are a very bad team (especially considering how many games they get to play against NL Central teams).

The Cubs have outscored their opponents 564-519. A quick glance at their rosters should lead anyone to believe that the Cubs are the better team.

Milwaukee basically sucks but they are still probably better than the woeful Cards, who are only still in this thing because the NL Central is simply atrocious and because they have "ran well" relative to their RS/RA pythagorean record.

The Monte Carlo simulations at coolstandings and BP take schedule into account, so it seems that Stl has no noticeable advantage there.

Coolstandings gives Stl a 9.2% chance of winning the division. They calculate this by rating every team based upon RS/RA so far in the season, and running a Monte Carlo simulation of the remainder of the season 1 million times. This is not the most accurate of methods (due to the crude method of calculating a rating for each team), but it is helpful to reference.

The Cards are probably somewhere between 10-15% to win the division, so I wouldn't bother betting on them at 7 to 1 (unless I was gonna arb it).

Post-Oak · #9 08-17-2007, 05:23 PM

While I don't agree with taking Stl at +700, I do agree with your premise of banging the clueless books who don't pay attention to the pennant races and habitually leave bad lines up. Most books are smart enough to take down division winner lines while games are being played this time of the season.

Right now you can get Red Sox -400 at Sportsbook ($500 max). On Bodog it is -500 (I just bet max on -400 and it did move). These are both undoubtedly +EV.

Both of these books seem too stupid to take the lines down while games are taking place, so you could risk it and wait to see what Bos and the NYY do tonight (BoSox won this afternoon but play a double header).

They may pull these lines down before 7 EST, or maybe they won't. Recent events seems to point to them not pulling the lines, but they probably have been getting hit by some max bets from 2+2ers in the last few days. Even I bet the max on Stl +700 (although I arbed it by shorting them on WSEX, and I am already very short on Stl over there).

humdinger · #10 08-17-2007, 05:53 PM

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Right now you can get Red Sox -400 at Sportsbook ($500 max). On Bodog it is -500 (I just bet max on -400 and it did move). These are both undoubtedly +EV.

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I don't bet futures at all, and I hate laying wood, but this thread made me check on one of my spots. They have boston -350 to win the AL East. That's the bet you are talking about, right? If I'm reading you right, I should nail this...right?

Thanks. Good luck all,

hd