Fold bottom set at $50nl?

[mittman84]

Button is ~16/12 after ~100 hands, no notes, nothing out of the ordinary, if anything tight. Sb is a huge fish.

Button has $60, SB has $73, I have both covered.
3 fold around to Button, He opens to $2, SB calls, I call with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] .

Flop comes: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6)

Sb leads for $1.5
I raise to $8
Button re-raises to $22
SB folds
$14 more back to me.

I think that QQ and TT are a pretty big part of his range, but he could also be doing it with KJ which I have 7 outs, and AJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s or something similar. He has been playing extreamly straight forward so far. Thoughts?

[toddxlogan]

First: you have zero good options, as far as I can see. I hate this situation overall.

You cannot call, as this establishes nothing. If the board pairs, you still don't know if you are ahead. If a club falls you beat almost nothing. And you even have to puke if a jack comes.

Folding seems too weak here. I would say his range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ (little less likely but I could see j's doing this) as well as AKc, AQc, AJc, all KJ's. MAYBE MAYBE AQ of something else, but doubtful. I'm feeling too lazy, but i'd say pokerstove that range, check your equity, and make your push/fold decision.

Knee-jerk reaction, I push and don't feel that great about it.

Others?

EDIT: I just realized how small his raise is. I'm not sure exactly how to read that, but it seems like if he had his big made hand he would be scared to death of the uber-drawy board, and would raise more. This makes me like a push even more here, as that smallish raise feels to me like a poorly managed combo draw. Anyone agree?

[Eddi]

10 outs? You have only 7 now, 10 on unpaired turn. So about 35% of winning if behind already. Could he be doing this w/ JJ or an overpair? I'm guessing if those hands are in his range here as well you should push. If you think it's only KJ here or a better set, then fold.

So readless I'd lean towards pushing.

[mittman84]

Correct about the 7 outs, mis-type, was already thinking ahead to my turn play :-P. I felt like I was either a small favorite or huge dog to everything in his range, there really is nothing I am that far ahead of if I push. I doubt he does this with AA/KK but maybe?

[mittman84]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: I just realized how small his raise is. I'm not sure exactly how to read that, but it seems like if he had his big made hand he would be scared to death of the uber-drawy board, and would raise more. This makes me like a push even more here, as that smallish raise feels to me like a poorly managed combo draw. Anyone agree?[/b]

[/ QUOTE ] not so sure how to read that either. remember SB is a HUGE donk, maybe he is trying to get SB to come along for the ride with something like top pair.

[Snafu'd]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

130,680 games 0.005 secs 26,136,000 games/sec

Board: Tc Qs 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.466% 48.78% 00.68% 63748 894.00 { TT+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, KJs, KJo }
Hand 1: 50.534% 49.85% 00.68% 65144 894.00 { 99 }


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Does this seem like a reasonable enough range?

Edit: If you put QJ in his range, your equity jumps to 55%. It jumps up to 60% if you throw in two pair hands (QT, Q9, T9). Not sure if he plays those this way though.

[AZplaya]

I would grab my junk and shove...I think your probably flipping with his range here so theres enough in the pot to get it in.

[mittman84]

Yes, seems reasonable. Durring the hand I didn't really think he would play AA/KK like that, but I could have been totaly wrong on that. Obv shove then?

[HBomb]

I'd probably push and hope to pair the board.

[Stonewalled]

A 16/12 player might play a strong draw aggressively, so with that as part of his range, I'm absolutely shoving here. I might feel differently if Villain was an absolute rock.