FTP $24 - overcall with AA on a dangerous flop?

[alex-star]

Both villains are unknowns. No reads except that the shortie lost most of his stack in an early coinflip.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1215
UTG+1: t1345
Hero: t1695
MP2: t1350
MP3: t1530
CO: t3015
Button: t1380
SB: t1230
BB: t740

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls t60 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t90)</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t220</font>, 5 folds, BB calls t160 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t370)</font>, UTG calls t160 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t530)</font>.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t690, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in t520</font>, UTG calls t520 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1210)</font>, Hero??

[RexWoo]

Well what do we know :

* BB is allin with any 2
* UTG has a piece of the flop

Turbo push.

[gs3737]

Push. Folding AA here in a turbo is bad.

[allhappythoughts]

I think I push, esp. against 2 unknowns, but I'm not sure I'm excited about it despite it being the right decision. If you get outdrawn, though, or are up against a set, so be it. If you win...coast to the money.

[alex-star]

But are we really a favorite to win given that we have no re-draws besides a backdoor straight? I am kind of doubting that. I see a straight draw, a flush draw and a possible 2 pair (JQ on board) that people love to limp with. I am not sure that a push is so clear cut here. I did end up folding here, btw [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[LouDogg33]

First off, I think I like a little bigger raise pre-flop. With one limper in already, I like to raise 5 or 6 times the BB with these premium hands. I'd be glad to take down the 150 chips right there, and don't want to see more than one opponent. As played, I would push here also. BB could have any two, and AQ or KK are highly likely for UTG. I like my chances against either of those hands. If he has a flush draw and draws out, then so be it. You got your chips in with the best of it.

[Kibby]

please get it in. AA is the nuts.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
Both villains are unknowns. No reads except that the shortie lost most of his stack in an early coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about this read - the guy has 700 chips and puts 220 of them in preflop by cold calling OOP lol_moranaments.

[allhappythoughts]

[ QUOTE ]
But are we really a favorite to win given that we have no re-draws besides a backdoor straight? I am kind of doubting that. I see a straight draw, a flush draw and a possible 2 pair (JQ on board) that people love to limp with. I am not sure that a push is so clear cut here. I did end up folding here, btw [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sort of with you here--I don't think we're ahead by that much. I think we're ahead most of the time at the moment, but not by much for the reasons you stated above--two pairs, flush and straight draws. Best case scenario you're dominating BB's smaller pp and UTG has a flush draw. I think the shove is the right decision, because if you win you're pretty much set (you're ahead right now in all likelihood) to make the money, but I do agree that it's not a clear cut deccision.

[alex-star]

yeah not worried about that guy, but rather what's UTG kept overcalling with. that's what I could not get my head around.