Greetings 2+2!

[n8dawg]

Hello, 2+2

In the somewhat recent past I was in AC and decided to join a Texas Hold’em tourney. The first night I made the final table and placed 5th, went back two nights later and took 1st. SOOooo naturally I have a poker gift (so I thought). I am going mad my mind is spinning I am questioning my-self on how could this be possible I am a PRO I AM READY FOR WSOP. Throw 200 bucks down on Full Tilt and I AM READY!! Needless to say I get owned not all at once but my money went to zero. I never herd of bankroll management, position, or pot odds etc… so set forth to educate myself and find out how I could have been so misfortunate I order “Theory of Poker”, “ “Hold’em poker for Advance Players” since I cant be a beginner, (hey I went to AC and destroyed them) and “Book of Poker Tells”… no beginner stuff for me I am ALMOST ready for WSOP.

So I noticed the website on the books and have been crawling around the forums under the radar for some time now. MAN I GOT LUCKY AS HELL. What a NOOB I am. Anyhow I have been studying TOP and almost finished reading HP for AP. Bought HOH vI and will be reading that next while studying HP for AP.

Do joined the forums because I think they have a lot to offer and plan on becoming a regular poster to learn and help when I can…


So now I am having a problem with odds and counting the percentage or probability on getting certain cards. How do you get the outs on a 3card flush or strait? Lets say you have (I will mess with the hand converter soon) Qh Js and the flop is 9h Jh As. I understand how to count the odds to make a set but with the Ace on the playing field, I want to calculate the possibility of the strait or flush hitting as well. How would you go about doing this?

Oh sorry for the long post and my future posts will not be this long.

[kayaker]

The best advice I can give you right now is to not chase a 3-flush or 3-straight. If you're not relatively comfortable you have the best hand on the flop - or a good draw to the best hand - don't chase. If you can see the turn for free, that will help you, but don't waste money trying to runner-runner someone.

If you really want to calculate your odds for RR, it goes like this:
((outs/cards left) x (outs/river cards left)) x 100 = your percent to hit

Outs = the total number of cards you can hit to continue. On the river this will decrease. If you hit the T on the turn, you have (4x)Ks and (4x)8s for outs. If you hit K or 8 on the turn, you have the (4x)Ts for outs.

In this case, that's 10 outs on the turn and 9 on the river for the flush. Plus 9 outs on the turn and either 8 or 4 (6 or 3 if the turn helps the flush) on the river for the straight.

Best case scenario (Th on the turn):
(19/47 x 15/46) x 100 = 13.2%

Worst case scenario (K or 8, non-heart on the turn):
(19/47 x 4/46) x 100 = 3.5%

[n8dawg]

i understand not chasing a 3 flush or strait yet however i still would like to know how to calculate the odds.. and your answers was what i was looking for thanks

[xMars]

potodds will almost never be good enough for runner-runner odds. tbh, its rather pointless to think about hitting runner-runner on the flop

[n8dawg]

[ QUOTE ]
potodds will almost never be good enough for runner-runner odds. tbh, its rather pointless to think about hitting runner-runner on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand that alone it would not be worth it to chase. but i do belive that in cases as stated above were i have 2nd to best pair, and possible chances to hit a strait or flush it might be worth seeing the next card.

in the above case how often would you lay down your pair of jacks?

[PJM1206]

there are a number of places you can get this info. I would suggest going to the library and getting an intro stats book and read up on Combinations and permutations. I found that to be a great help. Once you get the grasp of the number of possible combinautions it then just comes to figuring %

[kayaker]

[ QUOTE ]
in the above case how often would you lay down your pair of jacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on stack sizes and my read on the opponent, I may play that for another card. In that case you figure your outs from the flush/straight and add your possible outs to a set or two pair (must be a Q, as another A coming on the board will not help you). So that's 6 more outs on each street for an extra ~13% on each street, ~26% total.

Then also keep in mind that you hitting a Q MAY make Broadway for your opponent.

Once you have all of that factored in, and you give yourself odds (ranging from ~40% down to ~15%), figure the odds that a) hitting your hand will in fact win, b) you actually have the best hand right now and c) you can get your opponent to fold a better hand through aggressive betting. If you look at the best end of it and you have ~40% to win and you think you can meet one of the other scenarios more than 60% of the time, you should play. If you consider the bottom end, you'd have to make one of the scenarios more than 85% of the time - a much more difficult proposition.

Of course this is a little simplified and does not take pot odds into consideration. Yes, it's a complex process and I do not claim to understand all of the angles that must be considered. This is why it's strongly recommended that beginners throw a hand like this away most of the time. If anything, consider it as second pair and ignore the back-door draws until/unless you hit a card on the turn.

[n8dawg]

thanks all! i have never thought of the libray.

kayaker nice way to break down what my thought prossess should be.

[foal]

I've heard it recommended that you treat a runner runner flush draw as one out and a runner runner straight as maybe half an out. Factor in your trips and two-pair possibilities, the fact that you may have the best hand already and your chances for stealing the pot on the turn if he checks.

"
in the above case how often would you lay down your pair of jacks? "

Depends on how much he bet, what your stack sizes are, what your reads are on him. If you put him on an Ace then you shouldn't call based on odds alone unless his bet is very small compared to the pot.

[aaokwitme]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
potodds will almost never be good enough for runner-runner odds. tbh, its rather pointless to think about hitting runner-runner on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

i understand that alone it would not be worth it to chase. but i do belive that in cases as stated above were i have 2nd to best pair, and possible chances to hit a strait or flush it might be worth seeing the next card.

in the above case how often would you lay down your pair of jacks?

[/ QUOTE ]


Umm no, its so unlikely you will hit runner runner that its not worth caculating the extra 0.1% odds and then addind it to your 5 out odds.