Bankroll Mgmt for NFL season

[ClockWyze]

I know for fixed limit poker you should have between 300bb-500bb and for no limit you should have 30-50buyins.. but what about sports?

If I were to bet 200-500 a game. Would a 10k sports betting bankroll be enough?

Essentialy what I am asking is how many 'big bets' should I have in my sports betting account to bet on a two outcome sport (NFL) over the course of the season? Assuming I am winning sports bettor.. which I am not!

Thanks

[blackasthma]

It depends on how much you're willing to risk going broke if you should run unlucky during the season. If your win rate is roughly 57% on average, than congrats, first of all. I personally think 1.5-2% is the absolute max you want to risk to have < 5% chance of going bust during the season, assuming you bet many games. This opinion is based on a computer algorithm I wrote a few years back, and I might be a little conservative here.

If you're not a winning bettor, then why drag out the agony? Just bet it all game 1. I'm no tout, but I'd lay the wad on Bucs +6 at Seattle in week 1...

[rjp]

Use fractional Kelly and assume a small edge against the odds you're being offered.

You won't go broke, and you won't overestimate your odds if you have a true edge.

[greg44]

I'd stick around 1.25% If you really like a side and think it is the nuts I'd make it around 1.75-2%.

[greg44]

your asking this guy who just started with sports betting (he doesn't even think he is consistant winner) to use kelly?! There is no way in hell he will be able to tell what edge he has. Stay away from Kelly until you think you can handicapp efficently.

[iggymcfly]

Betting 2-5% of your roll makes it quite unlikely that you'll go broke if you're a winning capper. If you're not even sure if you have an edge, then you don't need to worry about using nitty BR management to make sure you never go broke because you're obviously not counting on the money for anything anyway. I'd go ahead with the plan as is.

[ClockWyze]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on how much you're willing to risk going broke if you should run unlucky during the season. If your win rate is roughly 57% on average, than congrats, first of all. I personally think 1.5-2% is the absolute max you want to risk to have < 5% chance of going bust during the season, assuming you bet many games. This opinion is based on a computer algorithm I wrote a few years back, and I might be a little conservative here.

If you're not a winning bettor, then why drag out the agony? Just bet it all game 1. I'm no tout, but I'd lay the wad on Bucs +6 at Seattle in week 1...

[/ QUOTE ]

your right. 10k on bucks. DONE

[rjp]

[ QUOTE ]
your asking this guy who just started with sports betting (he doesn't even think he is consistant winner) to use kelly?! There is no way in hell he will be able to tell what edge he has. Stay away from Kelly until you think you can handicapp efficently.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I suggested he assume a small edge against the odds he's being offered.

Flat betting doesn't adjust for the fact that a 3% edge at -150 should be bet differently from a 3% edge at +150.

[dj_mercury]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're not a winning bettor, then why drag out the agony? Just bet it all game 1. I'm no tout, but I'd lay the wad on Bucs +6 at Seattle in week 1...

[/ QUOTE ]
Nice advice.

Instead of using the kelly, he may use a simplified version: small-medium-high bet (for ex. 0.5-1-1.5) where every level is a percentage of your starting bankroll (if you are loosing money after a couple of rounds you could make the ammount a percentage of your current bankroll and not from the starting one, to limit even further the chance of going broke). Based on the edge you think to have on the odds, you put the bets on one of those categories of size.
If you think to not be able to estimate well, flat stakes can be your last resource but in that case I would stick to small bets, as it means you have to improve your estimation work and I would not bet high ammounts in that case.