Kind of deep turn spot w/ TPTK+NFD

[swede554]

From Stars $11+1 rebuy+1 add-on.

UTG+1 is decent player that's capable of reading hands. Preflop and flop are standard imo, but I'm debating whether I should be checking or betting this turn. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t4570)
UTG (t8326)
UTG+1 (t11410)
MP1 (t15150)
MP2 (t6760)
CO (t7610)
Hero (t11501)
SB (t15000)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, SB calls t525, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t450.

Flop: (t1950) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1200</font>, SB folds, UTG+1 calls t1200.

Turn: (t4350) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero?

[eBo]

I would check behind. I don't think he's calling you with anything worse on the turn. He's more likely to pay you off on the river with a worse hand.

[Rocco]

If you think he/she would lay down a pair (which he/she likely has) to a turn bet, a check will probably be the only way to get Villain to put more money in. My read is that most player give up their mid pairs against turn bets, but they almost always make a river bet with mid pairs/busted draws. And also, if Villain does have trips or a FH, you'd be paying the minimum price to find it out.

An interesting question would be, can we find a thin value-raise if he bets a blank river? I'm so bad at taking people all the way to valuetown...

[levAA]

I always bet here.
If he is on a draw its the only bet where you can get money in.
If he plays a pair it depends on how much credit he gives you for a K. I think if he plays JJ-88 he will call a modest bet on turn and river, if he plays 44-22 he will not put any more money in the pot, as there will most likely be another overcard to him on the river.

[registrar]

Check is good. He's not going to call another bet on a paired board with a FD. You're hand looks a lot like AK so he's not going to call down to river with 66, 88-TT. Leave betting to the river when he'll pay off with those hands, stack off with a made flush.

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]

If he is on a draw its the only bet where you can get money in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Quoted for attention.

I think you're ahead here, a value bet (2200~) here works perfectly for two reasons:

1. He has to call with anything he called with on the flop.
2. If he calls, you've created a 2 to 1 pot odds situation for a jam on the river.
3. If he comes over the top and jams into you (his correct play, since he's about committed to the river if he calls and he needs the FE), you can call and be ahead enough of the time.