10NL Blind Steal; river gut shot on scary board

[TheRedRocket]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($3)
MP1 ($9.65)
MP2 ($18.50)
CO ($10.40)
Hero ($11.05)
SB ($9.70)
BB ($7.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.55</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.45, UTG folds.

Flop: ($1.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, BB calls $1.

Turn: ($3.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($3.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero</font>


Ive played 4 hands with villian. folding is not an option but do I raise AI or just call?

[Albert Moulton]

If you raise or push, I don't think trip 8s or worse will call. So, raising is bad, and pushing is worse (although he's kind of short stacked by the river, so raising and pushing might be pretty much the same thing here - but both worse than calling). It's a paired board with 3-spades and you only have a straight. Call and see what he's got.

[TheRedRocket]

he has to call with an 8 or something like JT right because he only has about $3.5 left?

[Bostik]

I'd say the difficult decision is on you.

He called your raise pre-flop and bet on flop. That looks like a pocket pair, SC or suited Ax. The worst hand you're likely up against is A8.

If you raise, you're effectively putting BB all-in, and he calls that only with flush or better. Straight is not a bad hand, but on that board it's still weak.

So, to call the river bet might be slightly wrong - but to raise would be IMO very wrong. Any hand that folds, you were beating already and a hand that does call almost certainly beats you. By calling you have a decent chance of winning a smallish pot, but by raising you're either winning the same pot or losing a much bigger one.

[BotOnTilt]

I can't believe that villain could have had something like JT since he'd never call the flop with that hand.

The flop must have hit him somehow for him to call that bet, and I'm wondering what hands call on the flop. Possibly 8x, flush draw or a pocket pair. If he had a higher pocket pair than the board, like TT, I'd assume he would donk bet or at least check-raise. There are not too many hands that you beat, but since the turn was checked he could be betting with a hand thats worse than yours. I would call, but I see no point in pushing since the only hand you beat and that could call your bet would be an 8x which didn't hit its kicker.