Turned Straight Faces Flushed River.

[Chicos75]

4.40/180

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB (t2613)
BB (t1625)
Hero (t1355)
UTG+1 (t2450)
MP1 (t1730)
MP2 (t1880)
CO (t4440)
Button (t2472)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls t150, Button calls t150, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t525) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t525) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, CO folds, Button calls t300.

River: (t1125) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t700</font>, Hero pays it off?

[Mr.WeakTight]

if he had a flush, he would make more of a value bet, possibly even check, expecting you to bet and then raise. this doesn't look like a flush. he might even have an 8 for a smaller str8. I'd call

[Chicos75]

Is the pot big enough on the turn to just push all-in or am I losing value?

[cheburashka]

[ QUOTE ]
Is the pot big enough on the turn to just push all-in or am I losing value?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming for a second that villain is on exactly a flush draw...

You offer almost exactly the right odds to call at 50% of the pot. So your best bet is the one that maximizes your value above that (size X likelihood of getting a call)--I'm not patronizing here; I repeat this stuff simply to drill it into my own thick skull. 300 seems reasonable, although in my experience (4/180s, 10/180s) the majority of villains will pay off 400 here. I think pot-sized and above, your chances of getting a call go way down. If you think he will read a shove as a bluff, you might try it, but I think you won't get paid often enough to make it worth while.

As to paying off the river... I dunno. I'm inclined to think that villain is just as likely to have something decent other than a flush--QJ, JT, AQ (less likely, because he would have bet the river), AT (weak, but wtf), T9, smaller straight--so I would probably pay him. But as I've mentioned in other posts, making donk calls is a huge leak in my game, so I could very well be wrong about this.

[tomek322]

call

[JammyDodga]

I'd bet more pre-flop, say 200, 3*bb is a little small UTG. If I got it headsup I'd bet flop, multiway I check flop too.

As played, on the turn I'm betting 400.

I also don't like the check on the river. Firstly, I'm not folding here, as I'm ahead of enough of his range to make it +EV,

Secondly I think a lot of hands you have beat but would pay off a bet check behind. I can't really think of any hands that a check would induce a bluff from.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
if he had a flush, he would make more of a value bet, possibly even check, expecting you to bet and then raise. this doesn't look like a flush. he might even have an 8 for a smaller str8. I'd call

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is last-to-act, he cannot check. And the bet seems very much like a value-bet for me. If Hero has something reasonable (and what else should call Villain´s bet here?), he will pay the 700 in most cases. So - if Villain actually were on a flush here, this bet is excellent imho.

Nevertheless I called. Taking a more mathematical approach: the pot is about 1800, Hero has to pay 700, thus getting 2.5:1. This means, he has to be ahead at least 30% of all cases. Given a 10% bluff range (see HoH), Villain has a made hand in 90%. If he has a flush even in 66% of those cases (and only in 33% a straight with a K, two-pair or whatever) this sums up to 64% overall, which means, a call is +EV.

In any case I had made it 400 to go on the turn. To induce a bluff from a weaker hand I should have reads on Villain here which let me assume that he will bet a K (for instance). Otherwise I lead the river myself.

[Bakes]

more on turn, call riv he can def vbet a naked K

[bknollenberg]

i'd probably put him on something like KJ. it's a very checkable flop, makes since he would call the turn, and then when he hits his open ended on the river he'd bet out. however, one of the most impossibly satisfying spots is when you hit your flush and there are 4 to the straight on the board. when i'm in that spot with more than 1 person in a pot i bet pretty strong and usually get called by donkz. anywho, i'd say you have to pay him off here. if he does indeed have KJ, he would not be calling an all in on the turn, and by letting him hit his straight you have only helped yourself out.

if he had a flush, ship me to norway.