$114: "Bluff"/value bet this river ITM?

[Chipchucker5]

I haven't played with SB before, but he's up a fair amount after like 200 games. Do you see value in betting this river?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t8585)
SB (t2380)
Hero (t2535)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t100, Hero checks

Flop: (t475) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t250</font>, SB calls t250

Turn: (t975) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t975) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t800</font>

[Ditch Digger]

I'd shove preflop. If I didn't it's because I'm scared he's trapping so I would check behind on the flop. On the river no worse hand is calling and no better hand is folding.

[sence25]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river no worse hand is calling and no better hand is folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't think this is true.
weak aces / stronger kings might actually fold.
though i don't like the size of your riverbet op-it looks supspicious to me.
600-650 would achieve the same, wouldn't it?

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river no worse hand is calling and no better hand is folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't think this is true.
weak aces / stronger kings might actually fold.
though i don't like the size of your riverbet op.
600-650 would achieve the same, wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are no stronger kings, but you have a pretty decent shot at getting Kx to fold, so you take down the pot instead of chopping. Ax is not folding.

i would shove this preflop all day. so what if villian is trapping. as played, i just check behind on river. you are not getting a better hand to fold so the only value is getting Kx to fold and that is somewhat minimal.

[sence25]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river no worse hand is calling and no better hand is folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't think this is true.
weak aces / stronger kings might actually fold.
though i don't like the size of your riverbet op.
600-650 would achieve the same, wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are no stronger kings, but you have a pretty decent shot at getting Kx to fold, so you take down the pot instead of chopping. Ax is not folding.

i would shove this preflop all day. so what if villian is trapping. as played, i just check behind on river. you are not getting a better hand to fold so the only value is getting Kx to fold and that is somewhat minimal.

[/ QUOTE ]
oops, my fault with the kings.
A2 calls the river? not always i guess.

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river no worse hand is calling and no better hand is folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't think this is true.
weak aces / stronger kings might actually fold.
though i don't like the size of your riverbet op.
600-650 would achieve the same, wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are no stronger kings, but you have a pretty decent shot at getting Kx to fold, so you take down the pot instead of chopping. Ax is not folding.

i would shove this preflop all day. so what if villian is trapping. as played, i just check behind on river. you are not getting a better hand to fold so the only value is getting Kx to fold and that is somewhat minimal.

[/ QUOTE ]
oops, my fault with the kings.
A2 calls the river? not always i guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is what I was thinking...that maybe I could get a ragged ace to fold once in a while, and I could get worse kings to fold a fair amount of the time. We don't think there's enough equity in that department though?

[Ditch Digger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river no worse hand is calling and no better hand is folding.

[/ QUOTE ]
don't think this is true.
weak aces / stronger kings might actually fold.
though i don't like the size of your riverbet op.
600-650 would achieve the same, wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are no stronger kings, but you have a pretty decent shot at getting Kx to fold, so you take down the pot instead of chopping. Ax is not folding.

i would shove this preflop all day. so what if villian is trapping. as played, i just check behind on river. you are not getting a better hand to fold so the only value is getting Kx to fold and that is somewhat minimal.

[/ QUOTE ]
oops, my fault with the kings.
A2 calls the river? not always i guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is what I was thinking...that maybe I could get a ragged ace to fold once in a while, and I could get worse kings to fold a fair amount of the time. We don't think there's enough equity in that department though?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think he very rarely has an ace here. Look at the way he played the hand. If he does, he'll make a crying call with it.

[wiggs73]

Jmo, but I don't think an ace will ever fold. However it's also my opinion that based on the way he's played the hand up until the river, he doesn't have an ace a really large percentage of the time.

Soooo... if you can get Kx to fold so you win the pot instead of splitting, it's obviously a good play. As far as 'value' goes, I think that's where it's at in this hand... not so much in getting a better hand to fold or a worse hand to call. I don't mind the bet.

[JoeSchmo]

I'd never expect Ax to fold here. Your bet looks bluffy - I actually thought you were trying to get called by a ten.

[stevi3p]

wouldn't an Ace push preflop?

so seems ok, although there's a very small chance he'll check-raise you (i'm surprised how often i see this on the river even from decent players). what do we do then?