I think he has a busted draw.. then again so do I

[fees]

I have villian as 16/15/2.. but the sample is small... This should work.. right?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($196.25)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($225.30)</font>
UTG ($262.10)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($208.75)</font>
CO ($203)
Button ($197)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $7, SB calls $6, UTG (poster) calls $5.

Flop: ($28) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $52</font>, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $32.

Turn: ($132) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($132) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $82</font>

[Suigin406]

this type of player might not raise with a draw, so the flop raise is prolly an ace in which case he's not folding the river...you've represented an ace fairly well, but i'm not sure what he was raising the flop with

[fees]

my guess is like J10-KQcc... none of which can really call the river.. everything else bets the turn except maybe like AQ.. but I think I get some FE even from that b/c there really arent that many A's I vbet here that arent boats.. also 77 JJ are obv in my range

[quirkasaurus]

in a spot like this, which occurs very frequently,
wouldn't the villain most likely put you on a
busted flush draw, since you didn't push the turn ?

I'm thinking that the 2nd ace also limits the
possibility that you have an ace, so he might call
a bet with only a Jack or King....

I'm actually even worried that he hit his boat,
since AJ, AK are possible starting hands, and
the way he played it looks like he's setting up
a trap.

thoughts ?

[pmuir10]

[ QUOTE ]
in a spot like this, which occurs very frequently,
wouldn't the villain most likely put you on a
busted flush draw, since you didn't push the turn ?

[/ QUOTE ]

he was checking to the raiser on the turn. nothing suspicious about that, coulda been going for a crai.

[fees]

Yeah my range contains alot of A's, def alot more than draws

[Aschweinsteiger]

i think villan has trips here very often and i think this is a bad spot to bluff this river.

anyone like a shove on the flop?

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
i think villan has trips here very often and i think this is a bad spot to bluff this river.

anyone like a shove on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a sexy spot for a bet/3bet allin. FD + Gutshot is about even money if called by a one pair hand, and you've got to have some FE here.

Plus, getting paid when you hit your draw is pretty unlikely. The only way he can't get away from a bad Turn card is if he's already allin when it gets there.

FWIW: I'd do the exact same with a set/2 pair.

[shootaa]

if he's a super nit, i would call flop bet like you did because a lot of showdown bound nits aren't folding after a flop raise here, so i don't mind flop call, but i'm done after that.

if we hit, i vary how i play it, if you str8 i'm probably cr'ing, if flush, i almost like donking out v a good hand reader because it looks too obvious and therefore more like a combo draw he'd want to get it in with.

[Oct0puz]

Why not bet smaller on the river. Either he has a busted draw which he will fold to a smaller bet or at least trips that he never folds.