NL10. underpair becomes straight draw on turn

[TheRedRocket]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($11.55)
Hero ($11.45)
CO ($3.40)
Button ($10.20)
SB ($9.55)
BB ($10.40)
UTG ($6.50)
UTG+1 ($5.85)
MP1 ($5.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($1.65) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, CO folds, Button calls $1.

Turn: ($3.65) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, Button calls $2.

River: ($7.65) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $7.65

villian is 47/2 and calls a cbet 60% of the time.

I think Im most likely behind at this point. My bet was mostly a blocking bet to see the river where I think he will call a close to pot size bet with a A.

was my turn bet correct and the correct size, or should I be checking hoping for a check behind?

[Warren Harding]

I don't like the turn bet and your reasoning:
1) I put villain on Ax. IMO, there is a better chance villain will check behind or bet 1.8 more often than 3.65. If I am right, then your blocking be is larger than the average bet opponent makes
2) If you get a PSB out of villain 100% of the time when you hit, then you are getting 4:1, which is insufficient if you only win via the straight. add in the fact that villain may foild to your bet sometimes, you are -EV for the straight.

If you have FE against a pair of sevens or get called by a hand that cannot beat 66 UI, then you may +EV. But that's slight. I think you should check and reevaluate, or block bet smaller

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the turn bet and your reasoning:
1) I put villain on Ax. IMO, there is a better chance villain will check behind or bet 1.8 more often than 3.65. If I am right, then your blocking be is larger than the average bet opponent makes
2) If you get a PSB out of villain 100% of the time when you hit, then you are getting 4:1, which is insufficient if you only win via the straight. add in the fact that villain may foild to your bet sometimes, you are -EV for the straight.

If you have FE against a pair of sevens or get called by a hand that cannot beat 66 UI, then you may +EV. But that's slight. I think you should check and reevaluate, or block bet smaller

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent analysis.

[Larude]

The potoddsanalysis isn't right IMO. You are betting two to win 3,65 + 2 + 5,35 (convenience also not PSB) = 11 assuming all clean outs you need 1:4,75, so the odds are sufficients although borderline. If you can get a bet out of villain on the end I would almost always call with 1:3 odds counting on some Implied Odds, so better way would be to blockbet less about 1,8.