NL10: Am I missing a valuebet here?

CaptainSubtext · #1 08-13-2007, 05:25 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($9.65)
CO ($6.95)
Button ($10.40)
SB ($7.70)
BB ($10)
UTG ($9.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.4, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.30.

Flop: ($0.95) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.8, UTG calls $0.80.

Turn: ($2.55) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.5, UTG calls $2.50.

River: ($7.55) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $7.55

Results in white below: 
UTG has 4s 4d (one pair, fours).
Hero has Qd Qs (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $7.55. 

Villain has been a real callingstation. Calls a lot preflop and calls a lot postflop and then mucks his hand after the showdown. He never bets out, never makes raises or checkraises someone.
I'm the kind of guy who thinks if someone reraises me preflop he could have aces. So I'm scared of that ace on the river, but he checks it to me. Does that mean he hasn't got a good hand? Am I missing a valuebet here? Or should I also just check it down as I did, because the risk he got an ace or better is too big?

Don't know why it says 6 handed, maybe because some were siiting out. But it was a FR-table.

CaptVimes · #2 08-13-2007, 08:35 AM

The Ace will scare away a lot of lower hands if you bet it. There are worse hands a calling station will call though. What's your plan if you bet and get raised given that betting even half the pot is pretty much going to commit your stack with a one pair hand?

Don't post results, it makes it very harder to give you any advice.

CaptainSubtext · #3 08-13-2007, 11:30 AM

Well.......to be honest...I haven't even thought about that. I only think about my hand, his hand, my reads of him and all of those believing I missed some money by not betting the river.

I know of small hand, small pot and big hand, big pot, but during play I forget all of that.

I think it's time for me to think about...how do you call them...postflop plans.

I know, I suck.

Javanewt · #4 08-13-2007, 12:01 PM

I don't mind the check behind on the river. I know that people at this level rarely check-raise the river as a bluff or check the river if they hit. However, he's only calling you with something that beats you here, and if he check-raises, what do you do? If he's missed, he's not calling your river bet, anyway, so what's the point?

bkar824 · #5 08-13-2007, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind the check behind on the river. I know that people at this level rarely check-raise the river as a bluff or check the river if they hit. However, he's only calling you with something that beats you here, and if he check-raises, what do you do? If he's missed, he's not calling your river bet, anyway, so what's the point?

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. Good river play is essential in NL Holdem. My advice on rivers: If you're not sure, check. If there is more than a reasonable possibility that you're beat, play passively. Remember, raising with the worst of it is stupid on rivers, because you're drawing dead if you're beat!

Last night I was in the exact same situation against a tight aggressive in a .5/1 table. He posted BB, and I raised in early MP with JJ, folded around to him and he called. We both had like 110BB behind. Pot was 10 on the flop. Flop came out all low cards, he checked, I bet the pot, he called. Turn was another low card, but paired the board. He checked, I bet 2/3 the pot, he called. 70 dollar river pot. River comes and it's another baby card and he checks. I decided to make the 1/3 pot value bet thinking I was slick and that there was NO WAY I was beat. I bet 25, and he called and flipped over QQ :-(.

It's really really read dependent. Having no read on someone, just play it safe and check behind (that's the value of position = pot control here). I usually only bet if I have a read on this player that A) They can check/call to the river with a paired Ax or worse and do it consistantly B) It's their first time playing poker or C) you've been bluffing the flop and the turn or D) I'm playing a home game against my friends....because they're terrible haha.

Mingdu · #6 08-13-2007, 12:44 PM

yes you should have value bet that river ... and miss some of the easiest money in NLHE if you don't

bkar describes a situation that can happen but betting the river for value will make you a ton of money from calling stations like you say villain was.

Selective memory about times when called or shoved over are bad thoughts to have. Go over the last 500 times you value bet the river ... or were able to bluff the river because you value bet ... and you will see that it is a huge weapon.

Skills in my opponents which I fear/ respect

Javanewt · #7 08-13-2007, 01:46 PM

But is value betting a calling station a good idea when one of the main cards that probably has you beat shows up? What is villain calling with?

bkar824 · #8 08-13-2007, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Selective memory about times when called or shoved over are bad thoughts to have. Go over the last 500 times you value bet the river ... or were able to bluff the river because you value bet ... and you will see that it is a huge weapon.

Skills in my opponents which I fear/ respect

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I just don't like betting rivers if I have no idea what I'm up against.

Mingdu · #9 08-13-2007, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is villain calling with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly ... that is what a value bet is ... look at villains range and bet your hand for value against that

easy money

edit: and bkar ... you will never "know" what he has so put him on a range. That is something you can know and is much better than seeing a card, one he doesn't bet, and then assuming there are monsters under the bed

Mingdu · #10 08-13-2007, 02:55 PM

seriously ... you need to value bet the ratshit out of calling stations on every street. drive them into the ground

and check it around if you have a draw

so much fun!!!