KK facing 3-street lead

[pp262]

Villain is 20/11/2, fairly nitty postflop. He stacked me a few minutes ago on another table with AA>AK allin preflop.
Other than that we haven't tangled too much this session.
How's my line? Good or too weak?

Seat 3: Hero ($667,00)
Seat 5: CO ($612,00)
Seat 6: BTN ($164,75)
Seat 8: SB ($1506,20)
Seat 10: BB ($632,00)

SB posts small blind of $3,00
BB posts big blind of $6,00

Hero is dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero raises to $21,00
CO folds
BTN folds
SB calls $18,00
BB calls $15,00


Dealing flop J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pot is: $63,00

SB checks
BB bets $40,00
Hero calls $40,00
SB folds


Dealing turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Pot is: $143,00

BB bets $104,00
Hero calls $104,00


Dealing river 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pot is: $351,00

BB bets $185,00
Hero folds

[runningirl07]

You need to raise somewhere here I think. Flop is the best place for sure. I don't fold on the river, not if I've played it this way. Your hand is so under repped.

[invid]

i really think i just threw up in my mouth a little after reading that

[danjohncochane]

Why aren't you raising this flop to protect from all the draws? It's not exactly a dry flop. But as played yeah river fold is good.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Why aren't you raising this flop to protect from all the draws? It's not exactly a dry flop. But as played yeah river fold is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain's range is pretty narrow for playing a raised pot OOP, let's say QQ-JJ,77,55,AsKs,AsQs,AJs,75s,AJo, and if we suspect he will donk bet with all of these hands, then raise the flop to 120. If villain goes all-in, and if you suspect this nitty player wouldn't do that with less than AsKs and sets, then your equity drops to about 13% and you can fold. On the other hand, if villain just calls then checks a blank turn like 9h, then you push since the draws are still in his range and he's probably committed to call with a number of hands you beat.

So, I think raise the flop to 120 and conditionally commit to stack off if villain calls that raise and checks a blank turn. If a spade comes, however, you might check behind and see what the river brings. If the spade comes and villain pushes, you might fold then given your read about villain's post flop play.

[BDaws]

Would villain actually bet/call the flop with a draw? That seems like an awful line for him. It would leave him with 490 stack in a 330 pot and OOP.

I expect villain to b/3b his big draws and sets and fold most of his worse made hands so raise/folding seems gross.

I think this line is fine.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to raise somewhere here I think. Flop is the best place for sure. I don't fold on the river, not if I've played it this way. Your hand is so under repped.


[/ QUOTE ] i really think i just threw up in my mouth a little after reading that

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the post from runninggirl was puke-worthy?

[NOSUP4U]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to raise somewhere here I think. Flop is the best place for sure. I don't fold on the river, not if I've played it this way. Your hand is so under repped.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, how else can you find out if you're behind, or fold out a worse hand, unless you raise? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I play the same and fold river. I think your hand is pretty well defined when you call the turn also.

Mark

[Fonkey123]

Played perfectly.

[Albert Moulton]

If AJ or any non-flush top-pair hand is anywhere in this player's range, then you should call the river. Otherwise, its a fold. Vs a tight, nitty post-flop 3-barrel range of QQ-JJ,77,55,AsKs,AsQs,75s, you're hand has about 32% (2.1:1) equity. Pot odds to call the river is 1.9:1. So, without top pair or any possibility of an underpair or somekind of bluff in this player's range, then this is close fold. If you only add AJo to villain's range, however, this becomes a clear call with equity of 58%.

Based on your read, it sounds like he wouldn't cold call oop with AJ, so fold sounds ok. It's so close, however, I might call just to see what villain actually played like this so I know for later. It's really pretty close to neutral EV either way.

Now, as for raising 4xbb UTG, I think you might have planned the hand a little better. BTN is short-stacked so you don't have to worry about him much post flop unless an Ace hits. CO and BB both have similar stacks to yours at about 110bb's. SB has you all covered.

In general, for a big pair you want a target SPR of 4-6. But if you get one caller, then your SPR vs all but the short stack is going to be close to 14-15. With 2 callers, you're looking at an SPR of 9-10. Either way, you're uncomforably close to 13 which makes it harder to play post flop with an overpair. But to compensate at least a little, you have position on both your callers. But in UTG you didn't know that you'd have that position. A better preflop plan in an aggressive game might have been to attempt a limp/reraise to achieve a more favorable SPR to which you could commit comfortably on the flop and turn on a board like this. Alternatively, if the hand was checked through, you would have been able to play a much smaller pot and called the river here for a fraction of what you have to consider calling now.

I think a standard pfr UTG with KK given the stack sizes set you up for a tough hand unnecessarily because of the stack to pot ratio you'd expect with either 1 or 2 callers.