30 game run: Can I Get Any Info From This?

[thephenom]

I recently began to try playing $22 STT SnGs again. I struggled a few months ago, and started again a few days ago. At first I was losing, but in my past 30 games, I have a 110% ROI.

I know that is a short time frame, but is that any indication that I will be a winning player at this level?
Or is it possible a run like that is just an anomaly?
Or part of variance and deviation?
Or is this a kind of run that is only possible if I truly am a winner at this level?

I know long term results are the only true test, but I'm trying to gauge what the road ahead holds for me.

[sippin_criss]

Ah the good old days, I remember running at 150% after the first 6 STT's I ever played, and thought I'd be happy if I could at least maintain 50% over the long term. Anyways 30 sng's is not even close to a decent sample, 1000 should give you a decent idea. There's no way to tell if you're decent or if you're a fish so far.

[shakyamuni]

1. [ QUOTE ]
I know that is a short time frame, but is that any indication that I will be a winning player at this level?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's probably more likely

2. [ QUOTE ]
Or is it possible a run like that is just an anomaly?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

3. [ QUOTE ]
Or part of variance and deviation?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

4. [ QUOTE ]
Or is this a kind of run that is only possible if I truly am a winner at this level?

[/ QUOTE ] no - see #1, #2, and #3

I'll try and find a link to some confidence intervals that show you what the chances are that after 30 games your true ROI is within a certain range...

[thephenom]

I can't say I believe this run will prove I'm dominant at this level, but I believe I'll at least be a winning player in the long run (at least 10%). I know 110% is very high, and I don't expect to maintain it by the time I'm at the next 30 games I play.

But honestly speaking, do you think even a fish or a losing player can go on a 110% run over 30 games if they are a long term loser? Thats 24 cashes out of my last 30? Can luck be THAT much a part of it to make a loser look that hot?

Thanks for your input, as I'll continue to keep adding more games and see what the results hold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DuderinoAB]

yes

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
But honestly speaking, do you think even a fish or a losing player can go on a 110% run over 30 games if they are a long term loser?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. 30 games is nothing. 30 games is a couple hours for some people. To cash as much as you have in the past few sngs means you are running insanely hot.

So, the cards are falling your way. It's hard to lose when cards are going your way. So, bad players can go hot.

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