Prop bet question

[joel2006]

A friend of mine wants to bet me $200 straight up that Tim Donaghy wont, have to do at least one year in prison for the NBA cheating/betting thing. If he is sentenced to 1 year or more, I win. Good bet or no?

[blackasthma]

I smell a plea bargain in the Donaghy case...
You sure your friend didn't mean Michael Vick???

[cefis21]

Dont do it. There is always a plea bargain for he will get less punishment by pointing a finger at other people involved. Plus it may be very difficult to prove that he actually wagered on the games he worked. there going to need witnesses, paper trail, etc. Also...think of the crime itself. Illegal gambling. Unless you live in Nevada, it is all totally illegal. We all do it. What if we get caught?? Basically nothing. Michael Vick on the other hand is in big trouble. They have alot of evidence there.

[joel2006]

I wouldn't take the Vick bet. Given his previous lack of a record and the nature of the charges aginst him, he is very unlikely to ever see any time at all. A fine? Yes. Suspended sentence, maybe, but actual time? Highly unlikely. First time offenders rarely get jail time for these types of crimes. My friend (who has three felonies) is banking on the same thing in the Donaghy case. I think Donaghy will plead, I just think he'll get at least 1 year, but not more than three. Actually, I think 1 year is what he'll get, which is why I'm hesitating.

[blackasthma]

Vick's clean record to date may not be enough to save his ass, as there are 3 important things to consider.

1. This is a federal indictment and not the local cops knocking on Vick's door. It's not like he got busted for possession or even DUI by some Virginia backwoods deputy sheriff.

2. Vick's co-defendants are ALL plea bargaining. They claim Vick financed this entire operation. Vick, meanwhile continues to plead not guilty? At least on the surface, it looks like Vick's being set up.

3. Vick's career in Atlanta is done. Why? Because a savvy businessman like Arthur Blank doesn't invest $140M in a player without doing a THOROUGH background check beforehand. Given Marcus Vick's antics, I'll bet Blank investigated Michael Vick's history all the way back to the "old country." You think the Falcons didn't already know about Vick's dogfighting operation? They made sure they knew everything about Vick long before even drafting that $140M contract. Blank and the Falcons took a HUGE risk by signing Vick long-term, and guess what? It just blew up in their face. If Goodell is serious about breaking problem players, Vick could easily done in the NFL regardless of a conviction.

The only thing Vick has going for him, imo, is the precedent set by the OJ and Jayson Williams murder trials. The prosecuting evidence was overwhelming in both of those cases, yet the defendants were let go. Michael Vick probably has OJ and Jayson on speed dial asking for advice on this one...

[RickAstleyFan]

Too bad Johnnie Cochran is dead...

[NajdorfDefense]

Ray / Jamal Lewis lawyer could win the case. Could.