2.20 TPWK and I'm getting donked into

creamfillin · #1 08-11-2007, 03:30 AM

villain has been relatively quiet with stats something like 18/5.5/2.2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t106639)
BB (t70324)
UTG (t22862)
UTG+1 (t32605)
MP1 (t28400)
MP2 (t45115)
Hero (t30910)
Button (t67277)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises to t5000, 2 folds, BB calls t3000.

Flop: (t9400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t4000, Hero calls t4000.

Turn: (t17400) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t6000, Hero? calls t6000.

River: (t29400) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t12000, Hero?

Final Pot: t29400

sledghammer · #2 08-11-2007, 05:18 AM

I play it exactly the same, and I call the river; I would expect to see K weak kicker or worse here.

ItalianFX · #3 08-11-2007, 06:18 AM

I don't know why you put anything in white there.

But anyways, villain is opening very weakly. I'm interested though with what he had because this is a good hand to pick up a read with. He could be leading with a big hand hoping that you call or raise with a hand like AK that hit that flopped King. But if he's been relatively quiet and he calls your raise OOP, then I'd put him on big overcards or a medium PP.

THe problem is our stack size. Any raise is going to commit us to the hand, but calling down leaves us clueless as to where we are. His bet sizing is awful here as he is grossly underbetting the pot. Does he want you to stay in the hand or does he have a weak hand that he is trying to protect?

Another thing that sticks out to me is the river. Notice his small bets on the flop and turn. Then, he raises to 12k on the river. Did that Ace help him? Possibly. In light of that Ace, as sick as it sounds, I think we have to fold.

We are bleeding too many chips and we have 0 FE on the river now as we have 15000 chips left and calling the river is too much, so we'd probably just push all in and hope to have the best hand. The only way we are winning this hand is by getting our chips in somewhere and I think IF ANYTHING, we should push the turn and hope to get him to fold. Our stack is hurting so my answer is to flip a coin and push or fold the turn.

sledghammer · #4 08-11-2007, 06:32 AM

Eh, I don't think were in as worse shape as italian says, but calling the river may not be +ev. It's an ugly situation. edit and im drunk.

ItalianFX · #5 08-11-2007, 06:36 AM

sledghammer,

What kind of hands play this way that we are ahead of? And can we count on those hands as being a part of his range by the river when we are calling down?

hamnegger · #6 08-11-2007, 07:31 AM

yeah this is a tough spot if u have him pegged as a nit his bets mean exactly what they say and hes calling u w a king better kicker. at this low level id give him credit and fold but i could see shoving in heat of the moment. i hate a turn call. its shove or fold.i think u called the flop to see if hed fire again . he has so...i see you called turn oh boy i dont like that u r beat here i think he fired a third bullet and you are in a must call situation bc of size of pot

axl2rose · #7 08-11-2007, 09:51 AM

4 me no reasons to not believe river bet, I put villian on a Ax maybe suited, see his weak bet on the flop. I play that different: make a raise on the flop and fold a shove.
PS sorry my english that's my first on 2plus2!!

sledghammer · #8 08-11-2007, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
sledghammer,

What kind of hands play this way that we are ahead of? And can we count on those hands as being a part of his range by the river when we are calling down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Flush draws, an eight, kings. We are getting real good odds on the river, and I've seen weakish villains make 3 small barrels with those hands before. It's close though.