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#1
08-10-2007, 07:48 PM
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Yesterday I dreamt of winrates, not kidding. (LC?)
Your winrate is a balloon. Fill a balloon with air and let it go. It will fall down. Thats because of gravity. Gravity is rake. If there were no gravity, your balloon would hover endlessly into a given direction.
Now that there is gravity, you have to fill your balloon with gas if you want to make it float. A gas like helium. Fill a balloon with a little bit of helium and it will eventually float. The helium is your winning game. +EV decisions. Make some +EV decisions and just a little less mistakes and your balloon will float. It can withstand gravity, but its not given a vertical direction. Neither upwards, nor downwards. Thats theory however. In reality there is wind. Wind is variance. A balloon with just enough helium in it to withstand gravity surrenders to the wind. The wind will take it wherever it wants to. Sometimes up to the skies, sometimes down to the ground. Now add a little more helium and your balloon will seek to rise. However, wind is strong. A heavy breeze and it will hit the ground. Eventually as well as slowly it will go up. However, since wind is strong you may not even know whether your balloon is just filled with air, or helium. Its movements seem arbitrary and you cant always observe it long enough to indentify a certain trend. Now add a lot of helium. Wind is still strong, but your balloon will rise quickly. It takes little time to tell that your balloon is in fact filled with helium. And in just two more moments you can tell that your balloon is filled with lots of it. You have a winning balloon. And you know it even before others can even tell whether there is any helium in their balloons at all. 
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#2
08-10-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Yesterday I dreamt of winrates, not kidding. (LC?)
really weird post, but very good comparison
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#4
08-10-2007, 08:47 PM
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Re: Yesterday I dreamt of winrates, not kidding. (LC?)
[ QUOTE ]
"99 Red Balloons" You and I in a little toy shop buy a bag of balloons with the money we've got Set them free at the break of dawn 'Til one by one, they were gone Back at base, bugs in the software Flash the message, "Something's out there" Floating in the summer sky 99 red balloons go by. 99 red balloons floating in the summer sky Panic bells, it's red alert There's something here from somewhere else The war machine, it springs to life Opens up one eager eye Focusing it on the sky As 99 red balloons go by. 99 Decision Street, 99 ministers meet To worry, worry, super-scurry Call out the troops now in a hurry This is what we've waited for This is it boys, this is war The president is on the line As 99 red balloons go by. 99 Kriegsminister Streichholz und Benzinkanister Hielten sich für schlaue Leute Witterten schon fette Beute Riefen: Krieg und wollten Macht Mann, wer haette das gedacht Dass es einmal soweit kommt Wegen 99 Luftballons 99 dreams I have had In every one a red balloon It's all over and I'm standin' pretty In the dust that was a city If I could find a souvenir Just to prove the world was here... And here it is, a red balloon I think of you and let it go. [/ QUOTE ] I thought Id post it because its about as appropriate as your OP.
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#9
08-11-2007, 06:05 AM
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Re: Yesterday I dreamt of winrates, not kidding. (LC?)
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if your location is supposed to say "tap whater + shwag" but with posts like these you certainly aren't smoking shwag. [/ QUOTE ] na, shag = rolling tabacco cause Im busto and I cant afford real cigarettes. [ QUOTE ] Nice. What made you post this and was this your idea? [/ QUOTE ] A couple of days ago somebody says that I will be able to determine my winrate more quickly the more of a winning player I am. I thought about it for a while trying to figure out why that would be. After a while I got the picture and then yesterday night I dreamt about these balloons. @ those who think Im on crack Im not trying to seek approval here and I know I post a lot of [censored] at times. But I dont think this is as random as it seems. With this analogy (?) you could explain why winrate affects variance to 7-year olds (not really, ldo, but yeah). I just find it an astonishingly accurate as well as simplistic model to explain variance and winrate.
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#10
08-11-2007, 09:24 AM
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Re: Yesterday I dreamt of winrates, not kidding. (LC?)
[ QUOTE ]
Now add a little more helium and your balloon will seek to rise. However, wind is strong. A heavy breeze and it will hit the ground. Eventually as well as slowly it will go up. However, since wind is strong you may not even know whether your balloon is just filled with air, or helium. Its movements seem arbitrary and you cant always observe it long enough to indentify a certain trend. [/ QUOTE ] vnh, sir. The entire analogy is neat, but in particular I like this description of the illusory nature of short term results. I have tried without success to express this idea many times over.
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