questions about the rule of 4 and 2

[Fermion5]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=kn97ymhgp_w

I watched this video and understand it pretty well except for one thing. When factoring in whether you have the correct pot odds to justify calling a bet on the flop, why do you use the total percent chance of you have to improve your hand by the river? You are calling a bet to see one card, the turn, not both the river and turn.

For example, on the flop when you have a flush draw with no overcards you have a 36% chance to win according to the rule of 4, but you only have a 20% chance to complete your flush draw on the turn if I did the math right. (9 outs divided by 45 cards left in the deck). So if someone bets pot on the flop, you have the odds to call with a flush draw according to the rule of 4 even though you only have a 20% chance to catch a flush card on the turn. Can someone explain this to me? If you expect a huge bet or all in on the turn why would you use the 33% from the rule of 4 instead of the 20%?

There are many situations in micro stakes and play money games where I have insanely good pot odds on the flop. For example, pot is 300 preflop and there are 5 people going to the flop. Someone bets 30 on the flop and another person calls and i am last to act on the button. My pot odds are 7.7%. If I expect a huge bet on the turn, do I still use the rule of 4 to determine whether I should call with a gutshot, bottom pair, underpair, two overcards?

[uDevil]

I think the last example in the video is confusing. He uses the rule of 4, which gives him his odds if he goes to the river, and then compares this to his pot odds on the flop, to decide whether to call a flop bet. In this case, it doesn't matter which rule he uses though, because he'll come to the same conclusion.

Anyway, especially in No Limit, pot odds are just a starting point. Implied odds make a big difference to your playing decisions. Even when the pot odds aren't close to enough to justify calling, you can still play on if you know you will get paid if you hit your out. Making good estimates of implied odds is critical.

Edit: Didn't notice this part

[ QUOTE ]

There are many situations in micro stakes and play money games where I have insanely good pot odds on the flop. For example, pot is 300 preflop and there are 5 people going to the flop. Someone bets 30 on the flop and another person calls and i am last to act on the button. My pot odds are 7.7%.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your pot odds are the ratio of the pot to the amount you have to call. If the pot is 360 and you have to call 30, your pot odds are 12 to 1.

If you have 4 outs, the chance you make your hand is about 8% by the rule of 2, 8% is about 1/12, or odds of 11 to 1. So you have sufficient pot odds (12:1) to call.

[ QUOTE ]

If I expect a huge bet on the turn, do I still use the rule of 4 to determine whether I should call with a gutshot, bottom pair, underpair, two overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can if you estimate your pot odds plus implied odds will be greater than your chances of making your hand by the river.

[Fermion5]

[ QUOTE ]
You can if you estimate your pot odds plus implied odds will be greater than your chances of making your hand by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite understand this sentence. Could you explain what you mean?


[ QUOTE ]
If you have 4 outs, the chance you make your hand is about 8% by the rule of 2, 8% is about 1/12, or odds of 11 to 1. So you have sufficient pot odds (12:1) to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

why do you use the rule of 2 here? you are deciding whether to call a bet on the flop so aren't you supposed to use the rule of 4?

I understood the rest of it. Thanks for your thorough reply.

[uDevil]

I wasn't that clear. Let me start over.

Strictly speaking, pot odds can only be used to decide whether or not to call a bet with one card to come. First you calculate your pot odds. Then you use the rule of 2 to determine the odds against making your hand on the next card. You decide whether or not to call to see the next card by comparing the pot odds to the odds against making your hand.

That's great if the hand ends on the next card. But on the flop, there are 2 cards to come. No problem, you can use the rule of 4 to calculate the odds against making your hand by the river. If you divide the total amount you might win by what it would cost you to see the river, you can decide whether or not to call by comparing this ratio to the odds you got from the rule of 4. Now, there's a problem, however. This ratio (amount you win/cost to see river), which we call effective odds, is not the same as your pot odds.

So how do you find your effective odds? You have to take into account the amount in the pot right now, plus future bets that you expect to win if you hit one of your outs. We call the future bets that you might win implied odds. You also have to consider the additional amount you may have to call on the turn. An example may help:

On the flop, the pot is 10, and your opponent bets 5. You have 100 left in your stack and villain has you covered. Your pot odds are 2:1. You have 4 outs. By the rule of 2, you know you have an 8% chance to make your hand on the next card. 8% is about 1/12, so the odds against making your hand are 11:1. Obviously you can't call based on pot odds.

But suppose you think that if you hit an out on the turn or river your opponent will pay you off with his whole stack (which is 100, effectively). That is, you will win what is in the pot right now (15) and another 100. The additional 100 are your implied odds. You could win a total of 115.

If you think your opponent will make another 1/2 pot size bet on the turn, you'll have to call 5 on the flop and 10 on the turn (a total of 15). So your effective odds are 115/15, or almost 8:1. Is that enough to call? By the rule of 4, you'll make your hand 16% of the time. 16% is about 1/6, or odds of 5:1. So if all of your assumptions are correct, it is profitable to call.

Notes:

1) Just calling is not necessarily the best play.
2) There is an inconsistency in the use of the word "odds" when talking about implied odds. It's confusing, but it seems to be common use.

Edit: if something still isn't clear, let me know.

[Fermion5]

looks good to me. thanks for the clarification. I think I'll just stick to feel for the most part and only use pot odds when I have to call all ins since that's pretty simple.

Too complex to figure out implied odds, expected bets, reverse implied odds, etc.

The way I play is to call flop with flush draw or open end straight draw on flop and decide on turn whether to call/fold/raise. Sometimes I raise flop if I have overcards with the draw or I have a good read of weakness. Got to mix up your play.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Too complex to figure out implied odds, expected bets, reverse implied odds, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems overly complicated when put into words. Some practice would make it easier. The overall estimate will be crude, so you don't need to be very precise with the numbers that go into it. After a while you'd recognize the most common situations without having to do much calculation.

You're right about being able using pot odds in all-in situations as well as with one card to come. I should have mentioned that case. That would explain what is going on in the Phil Gordon video where he uses the rule of 4 when deciding to call on the flop based on pot odds. However, I don't recall that he said that his opponent went all-in with his bet or that he would be all-in if he called, so it is confusing.

There's a good discussion of odds in Professional No Limit Hold'em. I haven't read the whole book yet, but so far I think it is well written. Most reviews have been positive.

[ChaseHigh]

I used to have a problem with this too.

I find that whether or not you should multiply by 2 or 4 on the turn depends alot on the game (as well as the situation).

In Limit, I find it's best just to double your outs to find your odds because there aren't that many variables when it comes to how much will be bet on later streets.

But in NL, you have to use implied odds much more - how much do you think your opponent will bet (if at all) if a rag comes? How much do you think you could win if you catch an out? Etc.