Do I find a fold here?

[CheapFlop]

Villain is 17/14/3.7 - we haven't tangled until now.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $10.20
Hero (BB): $25.40
UTG: $26.35
CO: $17.65
BTN: $18.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $0.80</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, UTG calls $2.20

Flop: ($6.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG calls $5

Turn: ($16.60) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $4.00</font>, Hero???


Do I find an easy fold here? I don't see anything that I beat here except KK and I'd have to believe he's repopped preflop all in with that. All other hands preflop that he's raising UTG crush me, no?

[Carolina Pirate]

Tough spot for you or anyone else there. He flat calls reraise preflop and then flat calls on the flop an almost pot size bet. Hard to know what he has without knowing his style but its reasonable that he could have made a donk call preflop with AQ suited or outflopped you with a set. Too difficult to say but the $4 bet on the turn is so weak, only 25% of the pot, its hard to say. I think you should have checked raised on the flop and then made a decision, but not a continuation bet there. Like I said, real tough spot.

[NSM]

A little fishy. If villain bet more I'd actually probably check raise. That $4 bet looks like he got a little lucky and probably does have you drawing dead. There are better spots, probably should fold since you're out of position and facing another bet on the river. If he pots it though I might c/r all in as I'm suspecting him of betting the scare card

[bsheck]

He raised UTG. Couldn't he have AQ or KQ? Maybe he underbet because he's worried about his hand. I don't like putting in 1/3 of my stack and folding, and there's hands we can beat, so I would move in here.

[traz]

I'm definitely calling this bet

[mvdgaag]

Tough card, I think folding is best. Pushing is not too bad though, since you have invested 1/3rd of your stack and are getting 2-1 odds if you put the rest in. Once you bet this flop you probably committed yourself for about any turn.

The T sucks though, You are way behind QQ-88 &amp; AJ. I don't think AJ and 99- are as likely as TT-QQ though.

You still beat AK, AQ, KK, but I think we can quite safely rule out KK after his call on the flop (and preflop) together with his AF. I don't think villain would bet AK on this turn. This leaves AQ as a likely holding you beat.

Push or fold, it's close given the odds, I think folding is best EV but at the table I push, also for information.


[ QUOTE ]
There are better spots

[/ QUOTE ] No, NSM, in NL cashgames there are never better spots. There are different choices and you always choose the most profitable or least unprofitable one. Only in tournaments or when you are playing with a very limited budget is there a reason to 'wait for a better spot'.

[mvdgaag]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm definitely calling this bet

[/ QUOTE ]

After we call we are left with about $12 effective stacks in a $32 pot. We are getting it in on any river now anyways.
Calling makes no sense at all. If there's no bet on that river after we check it to him, than we are probably winning and missed value. If there is a bet we lose it anyways, because we can't fold for $12 more.

[traz]

Pot will be $24 on the river. We check river, villain bets, we'll be getting 3:1. I can very safely and comfortably fold getting 3:1 on the river.

On the turn, I'm ok with calling getting 5:1. Folding's probably not bad too, this spot is pretty neutral EV imo, but I call and c/f the river. I think most hands are checking behind the river.

[mvdgaag]

You're right, I miscalculated :|...