2/4 B&M - Any reason to bet this river for value?

[gobbledygeek]

2/4 B&M, 10 players, loose & passive (heads up to flop like this hand is very rare)

UTG+1 (Villain) doesn't get out of line preflop with his raises (i.e. I've never seen him raise junk or questionable hands). His range would probably be AA-TT, AK-AQ, AKs-AJs, maybe KQ/KQs, ATs and maybe outside chance of 99. I'm pretty sure he'd cap AA/KK, probably QQ too.

Preflop (10 players): Hero is SB with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG limps, UTG+1 raises, folds to Hero who 3bets, BB and UTG fold, UTG+1 calls

Flop (2 players, 8 SB): T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls

Turn (2 players, 5 BB): 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls

River (2 players, 7 BB): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+1 checks, Hero...

Is there any reason to bet this river for value? I think 99/77/etc. are unlikely preflop raising hands for this villain. And even though I've seen him pay off on the river with some weak hands, I doubt he'll pay off with A high.

GbutIbetanyways...G

[KitCloudkicker]

the real question you should ask yourself is why wouldnt you bet this river.

as yes its a bet b/c w/ 3 tens on board people love to call w/ ace high.

[gobbledygeek]

I thought about not betting this river because the only reasonable hand I beat that will possibly call is A high (and perhaps unlikely 99). Is A high really calling all that often here to make this a bet? I guess it is heads up with trips on board, but I've found A high rarely calls this...

[Wolfram]

If you bet, he'll call with hands that beat you and possibly some hands that you beat (AK/99 being most likely)

If you check, he'll bet most hands that beat you (QQ+). I doubt a straight forward player will go for a river bluff when checked to. He'll probably check behind AK hoping it's good.

Since there's little chance of him bluffing w/ a hand that you beat, I think it's probably best to bet because we're not folding anyways, and if he raises it's an easy fold.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about not betting this river because the only reasonable hand I beat that will possibly call is A high (and perhaps unlikely 99). Is A high really calling all that often here to make this a bet? I guess it is heads up with trips on board, but I've found A high rarely calls this...

[/ QUOTE ]

if you dont bet, your opponent cant make a bad call.

[BigBadBabar]

ez bet

[gobbledygeek]

[ QUOTE ]

if you dont bet, your opponent cant make a bad call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If my opponent is bad enough to make a bad call with A high, isn't he also bad enough to simply call down a better hand fearing I have a Ten or a bigger pocket pair?

FWIW, I did instabet the river. I'm just still not convinced it was the best play as I can't remember the last time I've seen A high make a river call on a board like this.

[Mike]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 (Villain) doesn't get out of line preflop with his raises (i.e. I've never seen him raise junk or questionable hands). His range would probably be AA-TT, AK-AQ, AKs-AJs, maybe KQ/KQs, ATs and maybe outside chance of 99. I'm pretty sure he'd cap AA/KK, probably QQ too.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think what you should be asking yourself preflop is should I fold to this player? If you believe this to be his raising range, you are possibly chasing preflop, and also heads up if I follow your post correctly. You are slightly ahead against big cards and behind against AA, KK.

Stopping at the river to ponder about your hand is not good planning because you have done the majority of your investing by the time the river arrives.

[mntndrew]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I did instabet the river. I'm just still not convinced it was the best play as I can't remember the last time I've seen A high make a river call on a board like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also FWIW, I recently bet AA all the way down in position on a board of 553/7/5 and was called down by A4, who told me he thought I had AK, lol.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]

I think what you should be asking yourself preflop is should I fold to this player?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you never folded JJ preflop for 1 raise you wouldnt be far off.

preflop is a standard 3 bet.