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#1
08-08-2007, 07:56 PM
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I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)
Hero (SB): $98.40 BB: $155.76 UTG: $45.56 BTN: $99.38 Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is TAG (21.7/15.6/2.33). I've been pretty nitty this session (about 18/15) but I have about 300 hands on villain so he might know I can lag it up too.</font> Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) UTG calls $1.00, <font color="red">BTN raises to $5.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $18.00</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $13.00 Flop: ($38) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero ??? 
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#2
08-08-2007, 07:58 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
bet. $28 or so.
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#3
08-08-2007, 08:02 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
I don't like this OOP, because it makes for hard decisions on flop - like this.
Eh... I bet/fold 28. I was gonna make an argument for CRAI, but the only hand I see him folding there is AK/AQ, TT and JJ maybe. If either his A or K or Q in the above is a club, he'd have the odds to call. I'd hate giving up, so I'm sticking my bet/fold 28 line.
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#4
08-08-2007, 08:06 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
If you bet you have to call a push with these stack sizes, right? This spot sucks because a good opp can def make a move with a naked A clubs here.. and you aren't even a favorite over AcQs.
I think I check here, if you bet you are getting a ton to 1 on a push here, but there are so many hands that kill you. Are we expecting villain to call that raise PF with a hand we actually have any equity against on this flop?
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#6
08-08-2007, 08:22 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
we're not playing psychic poker here. who knows if he has a high club. villain is probably tossing most hands on this board. too much fold equity, along with top pair, to check and give villain a chance to out manoeuvre us.
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#7
08-08-2007, 08:28 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
I guess I don't agree we have that much fold equity when he called the 3-bet PF from a seemingly decent opp.
The problem with this flop is not only does his range kill our hand, but the parts of it that missed give him an edge over our hand. Unless we believe this opp can fold JJ here I see no value in the bet. Even if betting is right, how can we fold getting like 4:1 if we believe that a naked club is in his range? Eff stack is only 99 to start the hand. Betting 28 means we've already put 48 into the pot. That's why I don't like that line. It just doesn't seem like any plan works here. Even if he just calls and we get an innocent turn.. we can't like our hand but we can't get away from it then.
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#9
08-08-2007, 08:31 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
tough spot. we can bet, but the problem is if he raises, we're not only up against high [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s...we have over pairs, sets, etc to worry about as well.
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#10
08-08-2007, 08:34 PM
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Re: I squeeze w/K9s, hit TPTK on monotone flop.
[ QUOTE ]
tough spot. we can bet, but the problem is if he raises, we're not only up against high [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s...we have over pairs, sets, etc to worry about as well. [/ QUOTE ] Which is why I don't like betting here. I don't think folding is right but calling seems bad, too. If it was a dry flop a bet is good because we can get away, but there are a number of semi bluffing hands here that we will be against. Or if he was deeper it may be fine. But with this stack size on this board I really don't like a bet here.
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